More guys I'm not drafting
Michael Vick: The hate may have gone too far on Vick, but I've never been a fan of him as a starting QB because he frankly isn't a great fantasy QB (except for 2006). He's never passed for more than 21 TDs in a season, has missed an average of almost 4 games a year since being named the started in Philly, and has never passed for more than 3,300 yards in a given year. His primary asset, his legs, is the exact thing that puts him in situations that cause injury. Chip Kelly's offense will have a different starting QB come 2014 and in all likelihood will have multiple starting QBs during the season. Too much turmoil and growing pains on the horizon and Vick is about as durable as a wet paper bag full of candy in the hands of an eight year old. No thanks.
Joe Flacco: Better real life QB than fantasy QB. Someone is going to rationalize taking him as a sleeper because of the numbers he put up in the playoffs forgetting that the players Flacco threw the ball to most during that run are no longer active or on the team. Say it out loud, "A QB that averages 3500 yards, 20 TDs, and zero rushing yards throughout his career is going to be worth drafting after losing his two primary targets in the offseason". Yeah...
Mike Wallace: I simply don't get why people like drafting this guy. Wallace has never caught more than 72 passes in a season and never scored more than 10 TDs. His yards per reception have dropped every year since 2010 and he's just gone from Big Ben to Ryan Tannehill. Do I need to explain this any further? Maybe as my number 3 receiver, but by that time he'll be taken by someone who sees Wallace as a faster Reggie Wayne (they're not even close). Mike Wallace and DeSean Jackson are one in the same. Big play guys that get deep, but lack the skills and/or body type to consistently beat double coverage and be a threat to catch 8-10 balls every week. Receivers rarely get better when they go to a new team. All the guys that do, Moss, Marshall, Vincent Jackson, are big strong guys with a versatile receiving skill set. If Wallace ever makes a Pro Bowl while in Miami I'll be very surprised.
Chris Johnson: The only fast and thin RB I'd take this year is Jamaal Charles and at no point would either guy be my number one. Jake Locker can't beat a blitz so teams will put 8 in the box and dare him to try. CJ2K isn't fantasy irrelevant, but I'd rather have Reggie Bush so I'll do something Locker struggles with under pressure...pass.
Either Packers rookie RB: I may regret this, because Lacy clearly has talent, but he also comes off the field on third down. Franklin is not as skilled a runner and probably won't see enough regular season reps to be a viable start every week. Lacy could end up having a Marshawn Lynch type season where he runs for a ton, but doesn't catch many passes, but given how crowded the backfield is (don't forget about James Starks) and his history of being nicked up I'll pass...for now.
Any TE other than Graham, Witten, Gates, or Gonzales: Remember I don't play in a league that requires a TE. What about Gronk? What about him. Multiple surgeries this offseason coupled with injury concerns before he broke into the league, and a return timeline that shifts every day. There will likely be one or two break out TEs this season, but I'm not going to waste a draft pick on one when I can get a quality IDP instead. Speaking of which...
Underrated IDPs
Paul Posluszny: This guy is the biggest tackling machine you've never heard of. He was very productive in Buffalo and has been in Jacksonville (see why you've never heard of him). Injuries are a bit of a concern with PP, but he's never out for long and always delivers when he returns to action.
David Harris: One of the most consistent tacklers in football. He's not a top tier fantasy LB, but you'll never get rid of him once he's on your team because he gets you 8-14 points every single week. When people start taking flyers take this guy.
Wesley Woodyard: What a great name for a linebacker! I guarantee this guy leads the Broncos in tackles this year. He's super productive and during the Broncos' turnover at the LB position they chose to keep this guy. You'll get him late in the draft, but he'll finish near the top of the IDP list.
Daryl Smith: He used to play for the Jags and was displaced by Posluszny and by injuries. The Ravens picked him up and that alone is a big reason I'm high on Smith. He's never been a stud IDP, but he's been solid. Now he goes to a team with a great space-eating d-line and a lot to prove. If David Harris is gone in the later rounds Daryl Smith is who I'd target.
Overrated IDPs
Any DB except Eric Weddle: Why Weddle? Because he scores points like an LB. Everyone else is too inconsistent from year to year to take early. I'll draft a DB before picking up my 4th LB, and take the second with one of my last 4 picks. I almost never end the season with both DBs I start with. Don't waste your time trying to discern who's in what tier because it's a wash. Stay away from corners and counting on guys that have had big interception years and you'll be fine.
Luke Kuechly: I actually think he's going to be a stud again this year, but given how he finished last season people are going to take him way earlier than they need to. Bowman, Johnson (Chiefs), Wagner, and Mayo will be right their with Kuechly game to game, so there's no need to take Kuechly in round 3 or 4 and miss out on getting your starting QB or number two receiver when you can laugh at the guy who does and take one of the other four studs IDPs in the next round. Don't get me wrong, Kuechly's only slightly overrated, I'm not willing to blow up my draft plan because I've got visions of a 180 solo tackle season.
Michael Vick: The hate may have gone too far on Vick, but I've never been a fan of him as a starting QB because he frankly isn't a great fantasy QB (except for 2006). He's never passed for more than 21 TDs in a season, has missed an average of almost 4 games a year since being named the started in Philly, and has never passed for more than 3,300 yards in a given year. His primary asset, his legs, is the exact thing that puts him in situations that cause injury. Chip Kelly's offense will have a different starting QB come 2014 and in all likelihood will have multiple starting QBs during the season. Too much turmoil and growing pains on the horizon and Vick is about as durable as a wet paper bag full of candy in the hands of an eight year old. No thanks.
Joe Flacco: Better real life QB than fantasy QB. Someone is going to rationalize taking him as a sleeper because of the numbers he put up in the playoffs forgetting that the players Flacco threw the ball to most during that run are no longer active or on the team. Say it out loud, "A QB that averages 3500 yards, 20 TDs, and zero rushing yards throughout his career is going to be worth drafting after losing his two primary targets in the offseason". Yeah...
Mike Wallace: I simply don't get why people like drafting this guy. Wallace has never caught more than 72 passes in a season and never scored more than 10 TDs. His yards per reception have dropped every year since 2010 and he's just gone from Big Ben to Ryan Tannehill. Do I need to explain this any further? Maybe as my number 3 receiver, but by that time he'll be taken by someone who sees Wallace as a faster Reggie Wayne (they're not even close). Mike Wallace and DeSean Jackson are one in the same. Big play guys that get deep, but lack the skills and/or body type to consistently beat double coverage and be a threat to catch 8-10 balls every week. Receivers rarely get better when they go to a new team. All the guys that do, Moss, Marshall, Vincent Jackson, are big strong guys with a versatile receiving skill set. If Wallace ever makes a Pro Bowl while in Miami I'll be very surprised.
Chris Johnson: The only fast and thin RB I'd take this year is Jamaal Charles and at no point would either guy be my number one. Jake Locker can't beat a blitz so teams will put 8 in the box and dare him to try. CJ2K isn't fantasy irrelevant, but I'd rather have Reggie Bush so I'll do something Locker struggles with under pressure...pass.
Either Packers rookie RB: I may regret this, because Lacy clearly has talent, but he also comes off the field on third down. Franklin is not as skilled a runner and probably won't see enough regular season reps to be a viable start every week. Lacy could end up having a Marshawn Lynch type season where he runs for a ton, but doesn't catch many passes, but given how crowded the backfield is (don't forget about James Starks) and his history of being nicked up I'll pass...for now.
Any TE other than Graham, Witten, Gates, or Gonzales: Remember I don't play in a league that requires a TE. What about Gronk? What about him. Multiple surgeries this offseason coupled with injury concerns before he broke into the league, and a return timeline that shifts every day. There will likely be one or two break out TEs this season, but I'm not going to waste a draft pick on one when I can get a quality IDP instead. Speaking of which...
Underrated IDPs
Paul Posluszny: This guy is the biggest tackling machine you've never heard of. He was very productive in Buffalo and has been in Jacksonville (see why you've never heard of him). Injuries are a bit of a concern with PP, but he's never out for long and always delivers when he returns to action.
David Harris: One of the most consistent tacklers in football. He's not a top tier fantasy LB, but you'll never get rid of him once he's on your team because he gets you 8-14 points every single week. When people start taking flyers take this guy.
Wesley Woodyard: What a great name for a linebacker! I guarantee this guy leads the Broncos in tackles this year. He's super productive and during the Broncos' turnover at the LB position they chose to keep this guy. You'll get him late in the draft, but he'll finish near the top of the IDP list.
Daryl Smith: He used to play for the Jags and was displaced by Posluszny and by injuries. The Ravens picked him up and that alone is a big reason I'm high on Smith. He's never been a stud IDP, but he's been solid. Now he goes to a team with a great space-eating d-line and a lot to prove. If David Harris is gone in the later rounds Daryl Smith is who I'd target.
Overrated IDPs
Any DB except Eric Weddle: Why Weddle? Because he scores points like an LB. Everyone else is too inconsistent from year to year to take early. I'll draft a DB before picking up my 4th LB, and take the second with one of my last 4 picks. I almost never end the season with both DBs I start with. Don't waste your time trying to discern who's in what tier because it's a wash. Stay away from corners and counting on guys that have had big interception years and you'll be fine.
Luke Kuechly: I actually think he's going to be a stud again this year, but given how he finished last season people are going to take him way earlier than they need to. Bowman, Johnson (Chiefs), Wagner, and Mayo will be right their with Kuechly game to game, so there's no need to take Kuechly in round 3 or 4 and miss out on getting your starting QB or number two receiver when you can laugh at the guy who does and take one of the other four studs IDPs in the next round. Don't get me wrong, Kuechly's only slightly overrated, I'm not willing to blow up my draft plan because I've got visions of a 180 solo tackle season.
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