I've finally gotten a set of preliminary rankings I like. Typically I wait until the second preseason game to figure this out and since there are only two games left in week 2 I thought I'd write about some of the observations from my rankings.
I like to divide players into these 5 categories:
No.1 Starters: guys I know I can start every week of the season and expect big numbers
No.2 Starters: guys who should put up good numbers, but may be a bit of an injury risk or may have several off games
Flex Starters: guys who will consistently put up decent numbers, but aren't studs
Flex Bench: not quite confident these guys will stay healthy the whole season or will be worth starting every week
Bench: players who could be valuable, but either their injury risk is high, they're rookies, or I'm not confident they'll be productive every week
Before I get to where some popular names fall into these categories check out my previous post on the league format I prefer to play in. Some of these rankings won't be the same (or make sense) if you play in a different format (i.e. without IDPs or non-PPR)
Overrated Offensive Players
Calvin Johnson: I've got him ranked in my top tier, but drafting him number one overall is a bit crazy. People forget that he's a considerable injury risk from week to week and while his skills are peerless I'd feel more comfortable with Brandon Marshall or Larry Fitzgerald simple because those guys never miss games.
Dez Bryant: I don't like head case players. Something usually comes up with guys that struggle with keeping a clear mind. Randy Moss had the greatest WR season in fantasy history, but the following year likely cost owners a championship when they drafted him in the first round. Bryant seems to have put things together, but was pretty inconsistent throughout last season. It's great to see that he stayed out of trouble during his time off and I'm certainly rooting for the young man, I just don't feel comfortable yet drafting him as my number one receiver. Give me Julio Jones or D. Thomas instead.
Victor Cruz: He's just too inconsistent for me. He'll have an 8 catch 125 yd 2td game and then have a 3/45/0 game the next week. Love his game, love his psychology, don't love him as my 1 or 2 WR. Great flex starter though.
Alfred Morris: By my calculations Morris was the best running back in fantasy last season. He scored in the second highest points percentile and was the most consistent from week to week by a mile. I'm the type of owner who will take the more consistent second tier guy over the higher scoring less consistent guy (Morris vs. Doug Martin last year. Think I'm crazy? Check out the Muscle Hampster's stats in week 14); especially in the last three weeks of the fantasy season, because those are the ones that count. So why don't I like Morris more than a flex starter? Two reasons, he's only done it for one year and he doesn't catch passes. RBs that don't catch the ball make me nervous because they are one dimensional. I think Morris will have a productive season, but if defenses begin to figure him out then I have no idea if he's capable of being Ray Rice. I tend to think that if an RB doesn't catch the ball much during the season (Morris had 11 catches for 77 yards last year) then being a solid receiving back is not in his skill set. I'd much rather have Trent Richardson who ran for less yards, but also had 51 catches (and averaged more points per game).
Marshawn Lynch: Possibly the second strongest running back in the league behind Adrian Peterson. Lynch doesn't catch the ball much either, but with him it's less about a lack of receiving ability and more about the fact that the Seahawks don't ask him to catch the ball much (23/196/1 last year). I think he has another good year, but I'd rather have Ray Rice.
RGIII: He's amazing, he's a great leader, he doesn't turn the ball over, but he's also only slightly bigger than Michael Vick and coming off major knee surgery. If I were a defensive coordinator I'd blitz the living daylights out of RGIII because his greatest weakness is his durability. I think RGIII will also find defenses a little harder to read this year compared to last, which means he'll probably want to run just as much or more than he did last year. I temper my expectations for most second year QBs let alone smallish ones that like to run with an untested knee. The knee will probably hold up, but I'll be very surprised if RGIII plays all 16 games this year.
Underrated Offensive Players
Tony Romo: From a fantasy standpoint people let their emotions about Romo's flaws get in the way of their better fantasy judgement. Romo is a poor man's Brett Favre (Favre in his prime). He'll make more than a few bone head plays, but in the end he's better than most QBs in the league and only worse than 4-5 in terms of fantasy. Yes he threw 19 picks last year, but he also was 97 yards shy of 5000. Romo is underrated because people don't realize that despite the picks he's is a consistently high scorer. Let other managers take RGIII or Mathew Stafford and then be pissed when those guys get injured in week 10. Romo will still be throwing TDs (and picks) come playoff time.
MJD: Jones-Drew was once, and consistently so, the second best RB in fantasy. He's coming off an injury and the Jags might be one of the worst teams in the league, but the later has been true for the majority of MJD's career. The only thing that's been able to stop Jones-Drew is injury and in this case he's had a long time to recover. MJD's best fantasy years are likely behind him, but if you think he's not motivated to pull a Steven Jackson at the end of the year then you're fooling yourself. I'd be ecstatic to have the Pocket Hercules as my No.2 RB.
De'Angelo Williams: I think the biggest issue with Williams has been the front office in Carolina. They made one of the worst personnel decisions ever by resigning both Williams and Stewart a few years ago. Stewart's career may have succumbed to injuries and none of the other RBs the front office brought in are as talented as Williams. It's a clear path to a successful season, especial since they'll need to rely more on the run to aid Cam's development. Don't get too carried away though, Williams is still a significant injury risk and shouldn't be your first or second RB. I'd love him as my 3rd RB though.
Ahmad Bradshaw: I know, he's an injury risk, but when he's on the field Bradshaw is productive. I won't depend on him from week to week, but having him on my bench would be a bonus. I think most folks don't know that he's playing for the Colts now and that relationship can't be understated. The Colts are a great organization and Luck will get Bradshaw the ball in the passing game. Don't be surprised he goes from 1200 from scrimmage and 8 TDs; good numbers for a bench RB.
LeMichael James: I lost my fantasy championship last season because I left James on my bench. The Niners played the Seahawks and got crushed in that game, but James had 20+ points, mostly from kickoff return yardage (if you're not playing in a league that counts return yardage quit that league). Frank Gore isn't getting any younger and while I don't see James as an every down back I do see him as a poor man's Darren Sproles.
Randall Cobb: This guy was Percy Harvin last year and while his biceps strain is a bit worrisome he's the first guy on my list behind Marshall, Fitzgerald, Megatron, and Andre Johnson. I don't expect his return yards to be as huge, but I won't be surprised if he has 95+/1300+/12+.
Antonio Brown: The Steelers signed Brown to a second contract and let Mike Wallace go. That should tell you a lot. Brown is a bit of an injury risk and I don't think he'll have a monster season ever (the Steelers don't appear to be that kind of offense), but he'll be Big Ben's No.1 target every game he starts and last year was a very productive player, especially in fantasy playoff weeks 13-15. Brown should be your number one bench receiver. 80+/1100+/8+, bank on it.
Miles Austin: If he can finally put the hamstring issues to rest he'll have a fantastic season. I've already said how I'm not particularly confident in Dez Bryant's ability to be a consistent stud and if Austin plays all 16 games I'd bet he'd be the more consistent receiver. There are plenty of balls to go around in Dallas, but I'd temper my excitement for Austin if the coaches commit more to the running game. Right now Austin is an afterthought in mock drafts and I think that's crazy. He's likely seen his best fantasy seasons come and go, but he's certainly deserves to be drafted. Many will take someone like Patterson in Minnesota over Austin and will be worse off for it trying to guess when the former will have his one or two of his 25+ point games in between 5, 6, and 7 point games. Austin's good for 8-12 every week he starts.
Antonio Gates: The Chargers are going to be bad this year. They're receivers can't stay healthy (or get open) and their o-line is in transition. Gates is far removed from his top ten receiver seasons, but he'll be targeted more than every other TE with the exception of Graham, Witten, or maybe Gonzales. Gates is such a big sleeper I've got to check his post to see if he's alive. If you don't get Graham or Witten or Gonzales, skip over Cook, Gronk, Davis, and Rudolph and take Gates. He's the only other TE worth drafting this year.
Guys I'm not drafting
Wes Welker or Eric Decker: I simply can't figure out if either of these guys is going to be a consistently good fantasy receiver. I think they'll both be very good in real life, but week to week I won't feel comfortable depending on them. I'll let someone else try and figure this one out, I'm just to risk averse to draft these guys as my 2 or 3 receiver, and by the time I'm ready to take them they'll be gone. That's fine with me.
RGIII: See my thoughts on RGIII above.
A.J. Watt: One of the few d-lineman in fantasy history worth owning in a given year. That being said he wasn't much of a factor when you considered other LBs and Safeties. As a rule I don't draft d-lineman and am not going to change now. Watt is a force and fun to watch, but he's not a consistent points scorer. Enjoy watching him play and enjoy playing the manager that drafts him over Baltimore's Daryl Smith (that's a fantasy IDP freebee).
E.J. Manuel: NEVER draft of rookie QB. Recent history may suggest a reconsideration of this rule, as does Manuel's play this preseason, but 9 times out of 10 rookie QBs, despite how well they play by real football standards are not worth drafting (Wilson and Luck were only fantasy relevant if you took Dalton, Flacco, or Big Ben in the draft while RGIII got injured at the end of the year). I'm beginning to think the Bills might be more like the Seahawks than the Vikings in selecting their future franchise guy, but don't get too cute here. Manuel will have some growing pains starting with the swelling in his knee that will keep him out of the remainder of the preseason. If you're banking on him being Cam Newton this year good luck. I'll take Eric Weddle before taking a flyer on E.J. (another IDP freebee).
That'll be all for part I of this preview. Much more on thoughts about IDPs soon!
I like to divide players into these 5 categories:
No.1 Starters: guys I know I can start every week of the season and expect big numbers
No.2 Starters: guys who should put up good numbers, but may be a bit of an injury risk or may have several off games
Flex Starters: guys who will consistently put up decent numbers, but aren't studs
Flex Bench: not quite confident these guys will stay healthy the whole season or will be worth starting every week
Bench: players who could be valuable, but either their injury risk is high, they're rookies, or I'm not confident they'll be productive every week
Before I get to where some popular names fall into these categories check out my previous post on the league format I prefer to play in. Some of these rankings won't be the same (or make sense) if you play in a different format (i.e. without IDPs or non-PPR)
Overrated Offensive Players
Calvin Johnson: I've got him ranked in my top tier, but drafting him number one overall is a bit crazy. People forget that he's a considerable injury risk from week to week and while his skills are peerless I'd feel more comfortable with Brandon Marshall or Larry Fitzgerald simple because those guys never miss games.
Dez Bryant: I don't like head case players. Something usually comes up with guys that struggle with keeping a clear mind. Randy Moss had the greatest WR season in fantasy history, but the following year likely cost owners a championship when they drafted him in the first round. Bryant seems to have put things together, but was pretty inconsistent throughout last season. It's great to see that he stayed out of trouble during his time off and I'm certainly rooting for the young man, I just don't feel comfortable yet drafting him as my number one receiver. Give me Julio Jones or D. Thomas instead.
Victor Cruz: He's just too inconsistent for me. He'll have an 8 catch 125 yd 2td game and then have a 3/45/0 game the next week. Love his game, love his psychology, don't love him as my 1 or 2 WR. Great flex starter though.
Alfred Morris: By my calculations Morris was the best running back in fantasy last season. He scored in the second highest points percentile and was the most consistent from week to week by a mile. I'm the type of owner who will take the more consistent second tier guy over the higher scoring less consistent guy (Morris vs. Doug Martin last year. Think I'm crazy? Check out the Muscle Hampster's stats in week 14); especially in the last three weeks of the fantasy season, because those are the ones that count. So why don't I like Morris more than a flex starter? Two reasons, he's only done it for one year and he doesn't catch passes. RBs that don't catch the ball make me nervous because they are one dimensional. I think Morris will have a productive season, but if defenses begin to figure him out then I have no idea if he's capable of being Ray Rice. I tend to think that if an RB doesn't catch the ball much during the season (Morris had 11 catches for 77 yards last year) then being a solid receiving back is not in his skill set. I'd much rather have Trent Richardson who ran for less yards, but also had 51 catches (and averaged more points per game).
Marshawn Lynch: Possibly the second strongest running back in the league behind Adrian Peterson. Lynch doesn't catch the ball much either, but with him it's less about a lack of receiving ability and more about the fact that the Seahawks don't ask him to catch the ball much (23/196/1 last year). I think he has another good year, but I'd rather have Ray Rice.
RGIII: He's amazing, he's a great leader, he doesn't turn the ball over, but he's also only slightly bigger than Michael Vick and coming off major knee surgery. If I were a defensive coordinator I'd blitz the living daylights out of RGIII because his greatest weakness is his durability. I think RGIII will also find defenses a little harder to read this year compared to last, which means he'll probably want to run just as much or more than he did last year. I temper my expectations for most second year QBs let alone smallish ones that like to run with an untested knee. The knee will probably hold up, but I'll be very surprised if RGIII plays all 16 games this year.
Underrated Offensive Players
Tony Romo: From a fantasy standpoint people let their emotions about Romo's flaws get in the way of their better fantasy judgement. Romo is a poor man's Brett Favre (Favre in his prime). He'll make more than a few bone head plays, but in the end he's better than most QBs in the league and only worse than 4-5 in terms of fantasy. Yes he threw 19 picks last year, but he also was 97 yards shy of 5000. Romo is underrated because people don't realize that despite the picks he's is a consistently high scorer. Let other managers take RGIII or Mathew Stafford and then be pissed when those guys get injured in week 10. Romo will still be throwing TDs (and picks) come playoff time.
MJD: Jones-Drew was once, and consistently so, the second best RB in fantasy. He's coming off an injury and the Jags might be one of the worst teams in the league, but the later has been true for the majority of MJD's career. The only thing that's been able to stop Jones-Drew is injury and in this case he's had a long time to recover. MJD's best fantasy years are likely behind him, but if you think he's not motivated to pull a Steven Jackson at the end of the year then you're fooling yourself. I'd be ecstatic to have the Pocket Hercules as my No.2 RB.
De'Angelo Williams: I think the biggest issue with Williams has been the front office in Carolina. They made one of the worst personnel decisions ever by resigning both Williams and Stewart a few years ago. Stewart's career may have succumbed to injuries and none of the other RBs the front office brought in are as talented as Williams. It's a clear path to a successful season, especial since they'll need to rely more on the run to aid Cam's development. Don't get too carried away though, Williams is still a significant injury risk and shouldn't be your first or second RB. I'd love him as my 3rd RB though.
Ahmad Bradshaw: I know, he's an injury risk, but when he's on the field Bradshaw is productive. I won't depend on him from week to week, but having him on my bench would be a bonus. I think most folks don't know that he's playing for the Colts now and that relationship can't be understated. The Colts are a great organization and Luck will get Bradshaw the ball in the passing game. Don't be surprised he goes from 1200 from scrimmage and 8 TDs; good numbers for a bench RB.
LeMichael James: I lost my fantasy championship last season because I left James on my bench. The Niners played the Seahawks and got crushed in that game, but James had 20+ points, mostly from kickoff return yardage (if you're not playing in a league that counts return yardage quit that league). Frank Gore isn't getting any younger and while I don't see James as an every down back I do see him as a poor man's Darren Sproles.
Randall Cobb: This guy was Percy Harvin last year and while his biceps strain is a bit worrisome he's the first guy on my list behind Marshall, Fitzgerald, Megatron, and Andre Johnson. I don't expect his return yards to be as huge, but I won't be surprised if he has 95+/1300+/12+.
Antonio Brown: The Steelers signed Brown to a second contract and let Mike Wallace go. That should tell you a lot. Brown is a bit of an injury risk and I don't think he'll have a monster season ever (the Steelers don't appear to be that kind of offense), but he'll be Big Ben's No.1 target every game he starts and last year was a very productive player, especially in fantasy playoff weeks 13-15. Brown should be your number one bench receiver. 80+/1100+/8+, bank on it.
Miles Austin: If he can finally put the hamstring issues to rest he'll have a fantastic season. I've already said how I'm not particularly confident in Dez Bryant's ability to be a consistent stud and if Austin plays all 16 games I'd bet he'd be the more consistent receiver. There are plenty of balls to go around in Dallas, but I'd temper my excitement for Austin if the coaches commit more to the running game. Right now Austin is an afterthought in mock drafts and I think that's crazy. He's likely seen his best fantasy seasons come and go, but he's certainly deserves to be drafted. Many will take someone like Patterson in Minnesota over Austin and will be worse off for it trying to guess when the former will have his one or two of his 25+ point games in between 5, 6, and 7 point games. Austin's good for 8-12 every week he starts.
Antonio Gates: The Chargers are going to be bad this year. They're receivers can't stay healthy (or get open) and their o-line is in transition. Gates is far removed from his top ten receiver seasons, but he'll be targeted more than every other TE with the exception of Graham, Witten, or maybe Gonzales. Gates is such a big sleeper I've got to check his post to see if he's alive. If you don't get Graham or Witten or Gonzales, skip over Cook, Gronk, Davis, and Rudolph and take Gates. He's the only other TE worth drafting this year.
Guys I'm not drafting
Wes Welker or Eric Decker: I simply can't figure out if either of these guys is going to be a consistently good fantasy receiver. I think they'll both be very good in real life, but week to week I won't feel comfortable depending on them. I'll let someone else try and figure this one out, I'm just to risk averse to draft these guys as my 2 or 3 receiver, and by the time I'm ready to take them they'll be gone. That's fine with me.
RGIII: See my thoughts on RGIII above.
A.J. Watt: One of the few d-lineman in fantasy history worth owning in a given year. That being said he wasn't much of a factor when you considered other LBs and Safeties. As a rule I don't draft d-lineman and am not going to change now. Watt is a force and fun to watch, but he's not a consistent points scorer. Enjoy watching him play and enjoy playing the manager that drafts him over Baltimore's Daryl Smith (that's a fantasy IDP freebee).
E.J. Manuel: NEVER draft of rookie QB. Recent history may suggest a reconsideration of this rule, as does Manuel's play this preseason, but 9 times out of 10 rookie QBs, despite how well they play by real football standards are not worth drafting (Wilson and Luck were only fantasy relevant if you took Dalton, Flacco, or Big Ben in the draft while RGIII got injured at the end of the year). I'm beginning to think the Bills might be more like the Seahawks than the Vikings in selecting their future franchise guy, but don't get too cute here. Manuel will have some growing pains starting with the swelling in his knee that will keep him out of the remainder of the preseason. If you're banking on him being Cam Newton this year good luck. I'll take Eric Weddle before taking a flyer on E.J. (another IDP freebee).
That'll be all for part I of this preview. Much more on thoughts about IDPs soon!
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