My Bad

I've been woefully neglectful of posting in this blog. Those you that have stuck around despite my neglect I thank you. There are two reasons for my abandonment this season: 1) I simply don't have to time to post each week (got a day job that pays the bills) and 2) I think fantasy advice during the season is mostly for people that don't draft well and/or don't pay close enough attention to football in general. My philosophy is drafting is 90% of success in fantasy with the other 10% coming from taking advantage of league specific opportunities. As such, much of the fantasy advice in-season has to do with who to start or sit in a given week or who are up and coming sleepers worth picking up. I've had a couple of ideas on these topics throughout the year and that's where I've let you, the reader, down. To make up for that I'm going to begin by getting you ready for next year early.

By now you may be out of the hunt for a 'ship or you may be worrying about the playoffs. Either way, the majority of your roster concerns are over for 2013. It's never too early to begin preparations for next year and that begins with trimming your expectations into shape for 2014. A lot can change between now and August 2014, but the majority of what I'm going to say in these next several posts are player trends I feel strongly about. Let's start with the QBs.

Quarterbacks

In general this position continues to be the most valuable in fantasy. I think as the NFL continues to change, getting the right QB is going to become increasingly important in fantasy. You don't want to screw up drafting at this position any more than a real GM wants to whiff with his real life team. As my wife says, "Let's make a list!"

1) Stay away from both Mannings. Avoiding Eli is obvious. He's a much better real life, real playoff QB than a fantasy option. You should avoid Peyton from now on because he's not the same QB in cold weather and that's when you need your team to play at its best. Peyton will win you games in weeks 1-10, but you can't depend on his production in the fantasy playoffs. If you're not drafting for consistency throughout the season, especially in the postseason then you're not doing much right.

2) Drew Brees is the best QB in fantasy and it's not close. Rodgers would be the best if his line were better and you could depend on him to stay healthy, but you can't. Brees plays in a dome or in the south for 10 out of 16 fantasy relevant games and has the best offense coach in football. Cam Newton has been too inconsistent thus far and isn't in Bree's league when it comes to making plays with his arm. Brady is limited by his supporting cast. Even if Brees throws a ton of picks he's going to throw for a ton of yards and TDs. if you have a shot at Brees next year, take it!

3) RGIII is undraftable. I never like QBs that are injury prone and RGIII has surprised me by staying healthy this year, but things are becoming increasingly unstable in Washington. Instability at QB is a death sentence for a fantasy manager. On top of all that, RGIII is still learning to read defenses and make effective throws. Too many ifs for me. RGIII may return to 2012 form, but it's far more likely that he'll continue to struggle and/or get injured in 2014. No thanks.

4) Kaepernick could be the number one QB in 2014, but you shouldn't draft him as your number one QB. Kaep's got stability and an offense that's getting healthy. He's still very young and learning to play the game effectively, but unlike RGIII his got a much better line and supporting cast. People thought that the Niners QB would break out this year and hopefully have come back down to earth, but they may have only been wrong in their timing. Don't waste time or effort trying to make sure you get Kaepernick, but if he falls to you and you've got a good crop of starters I think he's worth the risk.

5) Philip Rivers is once again fantasy relevant. I like what's happening in San Diego under the new coaching staff. They've got a dynamic offense and a budding star in Keenan Allen (much more on him later). Rivers has always been able to play at a high level, but he's needed organizational stability to keep from being a dumpster fire. They got it in southern Cali so feel good about waiting to take a QB if Rivers is still on the board.

6) Wait and see with Matt Ryan. He's not had his star receivers all year, but unless this team fixes its offensive line problems I'd be nervous about Ryan as my starter. Let's see what the Falcons do this offseason because they're on the precipice of coaching instability. 

7) Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson will be legit fantasy starters in 2014 if they get help at receiver. Wilson's got Percy Harvin, but faces tougher divisional opponents. Luck needs another weapon, Reggie Wayne may never be the same, but the division competition is not as tough. I wouldn't bet my season on these guys being studs, but if I had an amazing supporting cast I'd feel good enough starting them. At the very least you know they'll play in every single game.

8) Pump your brakes on Cam Newton. Notice how when Cam plays better his stats aren't as eye-popping. Don't get me wrong, Cam is top ten fantasy QB, but I don't think he's worth taking in the first round, nor do I think this seven-game winning streak is going to translate into a monster 2014 season. The Panthers still don't have a legit offensive threat beyond Steve Smith who's really showing signs of age. The last time Cam flashed brilliance the NFL took notice and next year shut him down. It looks like Cam is figuring things out, but so far he's not been terribly consistent. Give me Brees, Brady, Rodgers first, then I'll think about Cam.

The rest of the QBs are about who you think they are. Stay tuned for the running backs!