This position is dying fast. Personally I think having two slots on a fantasy roster for running backs is silly because it's becoming so hard to predict, before the season begins, who will be consistent scores (remember it's all about consistent scoring). So allow me to suggest that your league replace an RB slot with a flex in order to reflect football and fantasy football realities. Let's talk about the players.
1) Don't get carried away with Jamaal Charles. He's having a huge year and will probably have another big year next year, so long as he stays healthy. And that's the hang up for me. Charles in not a big guy and the offense overwhelming flows through him this year. That means that defenses will focus more heavily on stopping Charles and it will probably work to a greater extent in 2014 because no one else on this offense is worth devoting too much time on. As a rule the top scorers at their respective positions rarely repeat their performance in the following year (remember AD's 2000 yard prediction coming into 2013?). The bottom line is Charles is a beast, but he's not a thick back and he'll have a huge target on his back in 2014. I'd certainly draft him in the first round, but I'd be more nervous of him playing all 16 games, particularly down the stretch, than Marshawn Lynch. Speaking of which...
2) I think 2014 is Lynch's last season of being a number 1 fantasy back. Adrian Peterson is the only other back in the league that physically punishes defenses like Beast Mode. Lynch gets the tough yards, the goal line carriers, and is the only show in Seattle. He's had a big year this year and will likely get a lot of work in the playoffs. If the Seahawks win it all next year I'm downgrading my expectations of Lynch even further. This guy has a lot of tread on the tires and given his punishing running style I don't imagine he'll be terribly motivated to do it all again at full speed coming off of a championship.
3) Adrian Peterson will be the number one fantasy running back next year. One guy that appears to ultra motivated is AD. The injuries are beginning to pile up so like all running backs I'd temper my enthusiasm, but don't doubt this young man's drive to be the best. If the Vikings stabilize the QB position I'd take Peterson before any other back. If the Vikings continue to be QB incompetent or change coaches they'll rely heavily on their best player. Either way I think AD will be running a lot in 2014. Injury is always a concern and will be even more so if the Vikings don't get help on offense, but Peterson has been ultra productive under less than ideal circumstances for most of his career.
4) Matt Forte will be the second best fantasy running back. I'll be targeting Forte next year for several reasons. 1) His coach knows how to use him efficiently. 2) He's been ultra productive and consistent over the course of his career. 3) The team is offensively balanced and stable. 4) He has a counterpart at the same position that takes a beating. The Bears might have the most productive offense in the league next year and Forte will be at the center of it. Folks will be falling all over themselves to get Charles or Lynch or even AD and will pass on the back that's got the best prospects for success.
5) Darren Sproles will bounce back, but not as high as we're accustomed. Sproles is a top 5 back in PPR (the only format that makes sense) when healthy. He's little, but thick and plays all over the field. This year he's shown signs of age and hasn't been his usual durable self. I think he'll be draft worthy next year, but I'm a little worried by how well he's been bottled up in the second half of the year. I think the Saints will have to do a bit of soul searching this offseason because they're falling behind the emerging NFC teams (Seattle, San Fran, and Carolina) in their ability to play consistently well home and away. I don't know if a small back fits into what this team will have to become to beat more physical teams.
6) Frank Gore is over the hill. Draft him if you want next year. I haven't in the last 3 drafts and I'm even more standoffish now. He's a great player, but he's got a lot of miles on those surgically repaired knees. I think he's got a great shot at gaining 1000+ yards running, I just see a consistent weekly performance in his fantasy future. I see 150 yards in one week followed by two or three 35 yard games. Don't forget that Marcus Lattimore will be healthy next year. We'll have to see how he responds in the preseason, but the 49ers aren't stupid, they drafted the USC star for a reason.
7) If the Texans get a good coach Arian Foster will be a fantasy stud again. The Texans need a coach they can believe in and one who will maximize the talent on a load roster. Foster is a monster, but if this organization doesn't hit a home run with the head coach the motivation for Foster to play hard will fade. He got his big contract so now the only thing left to do is win a ring. If the coach is a flop don't expect Foster to play hard and sacrifice his body for a rushing title.
8) Shady McCoy makes me nervous. Have you seen this guy make cuts?! It's unbelievable. It's also unbelievable that his ACL, MCL, and PCL don't snap while he's doing it. Chip Kelly knows what he's doing and if McCoy can stay healthy he's a monster. I'd rather have Matt Forte because his running style is more fluid and easier on his body than McCoy's style.
9) Don't sleep on Trent Richardson. I'll be the first to admit that I thought Jim Brown was crazy when he said Richardson wasn't special. Seems Mr. Brown (met the man, amazing person) was right, but I'm not quite ready to fully agree with the greatest running back of all time. Richardson may not be the stud I thought he was going to be coming out of college, but I still think he can be a very good player and a top 10 fantasy back. It's a big adjustment getting traded in the middle of the season, especially when you don't see it coming. Richardson is a grinder and he's in a good situation with the Colts. The team has a subpar offensive line and if they continue to make good personnel decisions the holes will begin to open up. Don't forget how productive this guy was on the Browns, a team with no passing game in the AFC North.
Okay, I think that's all I've got for now. Check back soon for my thoughts on receivers (wideouts and tight ends)!
1) Don't get carried away with Jamaal Charles. He's having a huge year and will probably have another big year next year, so long as he stays healthy. And that's the hang up for me. Charles in not a big guy and the offense overwhelming flows through him this year. That means that defenses will focus more heavily on stopping Charles and it will probably work to a greater extent in 2014 because no one else on this offense is worth devoting too much time on. As a rule the top scorers at their respective positions rarely repeat their performance in the following year (remember AD's 2000 yard prediction coming into 2013?). The bottom line is Charles is a beast, but he's not a thick back and he'll have a huge target on his back in 2014. I'd certainly draft him in the first round, but I'd be more nervous of him playing all 16 games, particularly down the stretch, than Marshawn Lynch. Speaking of which...
2) I think 2014 is Lynch's last season of being a number 1 fantasy back. Adrian Peterson is the only other back in the league that physically punishes defenses like Beast Mode. Lynch gets the tough yards, the goal line carriers, and is the only show in Seattle. He's had a big year this year and will likely get a lot of work in the playoffs. If the Seahawks win it all next year I'm downgrading my expectations of Lynch even further. This guy has a lot of tread on the tires and given his punishing running style I don't imagine he'll be terribly motivated to do it all again at full speed coming off of a championship.
3) Adrian Peterson will be the number one fantasy running back next year. One guy that appears to ultra motivated is AD. The injuries are beginning to pile up so like all running backs I'd temper my enthusiasm, but don't doubt this young man's drive to be the best. If the Vikings stabilize the QB position I'd take Peterson before any other back. If the Vikings continue to be QB incompetent or change coaches they'll rely heavily on their best player. Either way I think AD will be running a lot in 2014. Injury is always a concern and will be even more so if the Vikings don't get help on offense, but Peterson has been ultra productive under less than ideal circumstances for most of his career.
4) Matt Forte will be the second best fantasy running back. I'll be targeting Forte next year for several reasons. 1) His coach knows how to use him efficiently. 2) He's been ultra productive and consistent over the course of his career. 3) The team is offensively balanced and stable. 4) He has a counterpart at the same position that takes a beating. The Bears might have the most productive offense in the league next year and Forte will be at the center of it. Folks will be falling all over themselves to get Charles or Lynch or even AD and will pass on the back that's got the best prospects for success.
5) Darren Sproles will bounce back, but not as high as we're accustomed. Sproles is a top 5 back in PPR (the only format that makes sense) when healthy. He's little, but thick and plays all over the field. This year he's shown signs of age and hasn't been his usual durable self. I think he'll be draft worthy next year, but I'm a little worried by how well he's been bottled up in the second half of the year. I think the Saints will have to do a bit of soul searching this offseason because they're falling behind the emerging NFC teams (Seattle, San Fran, and Carolina) in their ability to play consistently well home and away. I don't know if a small back fits into what this team will have to become to beat more physical teams.
6) Frank Gore is over the hill. Draft him if you want next year. I haven't in the last 3 drafts and I'm even more standoffish now. He's a great player, but he's got a lot of miles on those surgically repaired knees. I think he's got a great shot at gaining 1000+ yards running, I just see a consistent weekly performance in his fantasy future. I see 150 yards in one week followed by two or three 35 yard games. Don't forget that Marcus Lattimore will be healthy next year. We'll have to see how he responds in the preseason, but the 49ers aren't stupid, they drafted the USC star for a reason.
7) If the Texans get a good coach Arian Foster will be a fantasy stud again. The Texans need a coach they can believe in and one who will maximize the talent on a load roster. Foster is a monster, but if this organization doesn't hit a home run with the head coach the motivation for Foster to play hard will fade. He got his big contract so now the only thing left to do is win a ring. If the coach is a flop don't expect Foster to play hard and sacrifice his body for a rushing title.
8) Shady McCoy makes me nervous. Have you seen this guy make cuts?! It's unbelievable. It's also unbelievable that his ACL, MCL, and PCL don't snap while he's doing it. Chip Kelly knows what he's doing and if McCoy can stay healthy he's a monster. I'd rather have Matt Forte because his running style is more fluid and easier on his body than McCoy's style.
9) Don't sleep on Trent Richardson. I'll be the first to admit that I thought Jim Brown was crazy when he said Richardson wasn't special. Seems Mr. Brown (met the man, amazing person) was right, but I'm not quite ready to fully agree with the greatest running back of all time. Richardson may not be the stud I thought he was going to be coming out of college, but I still think he can be a very good player and a top 10 fantasy back. It's a big adjustment getting traded in the middle of the season, especially when you don't see it coming. Richardson is a grinder and he's in a good situation with the Colts. The team has a subpar offensive line and if they continue to make good personnel decisions the holes will begin to open up. Don't forget how productive this guy was on the Browns, a team with no passing game in the AFC North.
Okay, I think that's all I've got for now. Check back soon for my thoughts on receivers (wideouts and tight ends)!
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