So a week into the fantasy season I thought I'd give you a rundown of the squad I drafted and some general thoughts on fantasy. I should say that with fantasy I prefer to sit and wait a little longer than most on making big declarations about busts and breakouts. I'll have a lot more say come week 3-4.
So here's the team I drafted in a twelve team, PPR, IDP league picking last.
QB: Tony Romo (5)
RB1: Maurice Jones-Drew (1)
RB2: Rashard Mendenhall (11)
WR1: Megatron (2)
WR2: Randall Cobb (3)
W/T: Larry Fitzgerald (4)
W/R/T: Anquan Boldin (13)
BN: Vick Ballard (15)
BN: Knile Davis (19)
BN: Josh Gordon (16)
BN: Kenny Britt (14)
BN: Fred Jackson (22)
D: Navorro Bowman (6)
D: Bobby Wagner (7)
D: Jerod (please pass the) Mayo (8)
DB: Harrison Smith (12)
DB: Kam Chancellor (17)
LB: Wesley Woodyard (9)
LB: Lawrence Timmons (10)
BN: D.J. Williams (18)
BN: Matt Herzlich (20)
BN: Jon Bostic (21)
Overall this is a strong team (I beat last year's champion in the first week by 40), but it's probably my worst draft in several years. I should have taken Brandon Marshall instead of Megatron in the second round and should have taken Darren Sproles instead of Fitzgerald in the forth. I don't like having holes on my roster and I've got a glaring weakness at RB. MJD may not return to form and if he doesn't I'm dependent on an injury to a starter ahead of the backups on my roster for a consistent running back. Having Sproles would have essentially guaranteed me a productive RB with MJD as a bonus. Marshall scored only half a point per game less than Megatron in our league last year and was considerably more consistent. One the other hand this is fantasy so who knows how things are going to play out in the end. I'm confident in my team, but it's the most unbalanced team I've had since my rookie year.
Now let me talk about some general thoughts:
1) Running backs are not nearly as valuable as WRs. I know there are fewer backs that can score you points on a consistent basis these days, which should make them a hotter commodity, but I'm going the other way and looking to WRs for consistency. As I said, I'm a risk averse fantasy manager and frankly RBs make me nervous. They get injured at higher rates, they're becoming harder to predict outside of the studs (and there's only one or two solid one this year [Rice and Peterson]), and the game is moving away from one RB having a prominent role. I'll make like Belichick and start recording other managers' draft boards. Wait! I mean I'll start abandoning RBs for stud receivers.
2) I'd be worried about Dez Bryant if I had him on my team. As I said in my reality football blog I still don't think Dez has figured out how to run effective routes and beat double coverage AND he's now injured his foot. Foot injuries are the new high ankle sprain. If you can trade Dez to someone who's still a believer in his breakout year then I'd do it.
3) Speaking of fantasy busts. SELL YOUR MIKE WALLACE STOCK NOW! I told you this would happen and though some will say "It's just one game" I say we've seen this story too many times to think that Wallace and his petulant attitude will rebound and have a top receiver year. You won't be able to predict his week-to-week production and the fewer starters you have like that the better off you'll be. If he has a monster game this week all the better to sucker someone into trading Reggie Wayne for him. Get ride of this guy posthaste!
4) Ambiguity at running back isn't good and if you own C.J. Spiller or Arian Foster I'd be concerned. Too early to bail, but warm up the trading block. Their health is an issue and they have two capable backups. I'd temper my expectations for a big year.
5) Brady will finish outside the top 5 this year. It's clear after watching the Jets game that Brady doesn't have the personnel right now to make dynamic plays down the field. Even when Gronk gets back, and good on you if you drafted him late, I think Brady has one of his worst statistical years in a long time. He's still an every-week starter, but it's going to be a bit of slow year.
6) If Colin Kaepernick stays healthy he'll be the number one fantasy QB this year. This guy is more dynamic than any other QB in the league and if he was a thick as Cam Newton I'd trade Megatron and Romo to get him. Kaep's not a small guy and he takes care not to take hits, but he's not built like Andrew Luck (have you seen how thin his legs are?!). If you drafted him in the later rounds then you might have gotten the steal of the draft.
7) The case for team defenses gets another nail in its coffin this year. The days of dominant defenses is over. I've said before that team defenses are stupid because they're impossible to predict from week to week and now I think they'll score even less than kickers. DOWN WITH D/ST!
Good luck this week folks!
So here's the team I drafted in a twelve team, PPR, IDP league picking last.
QB: Tony Romo (5)
RB1: Maurice Jones-Drew (1)
RB2: Rashard Mendenhall (11)
WR1: Megatron (2)
WR2: Randall Cobb (3)
W/T: Larry Fitzgerald (4)
W/R/T: Anquan Boldin (13)
BN: Vick Ballard (15)
BN: Knile Davis (19)
BN: Josh Gordon (16)
BN: Kenny Britt (14)
BN: Fred Jackson (22)
D: Navorro Bowman (6)
D: Bobby Wagner (7)
D: Jerod (please pass the) Mayo (8)
DB: Harrison Smith (12)
DB: Kam Chancellor (17)
LB: Wesley Woodyard (9)
LB: Lawrence Timmons (10)
BN: D.J. Williams (18)
BN: Matt Herzlich (20)
BN: Jon Bostic (21)
Overall this is a strong team (I beat last year's champion in the first week by 40), but it's probably my worst draft in several years. I should have taken Brandon Marshall instead of Megatron in the second round and should have taken Darren Sproles instead of Fitzgerald in the forth. I don't like having holes on my roster and I've got a glaring weakness at RB. MJD may not return to form and if he doesn't I'm dependent on an injury to a starter ahead of the backups on my roster for a consistent running back. Having Sproles would have essentially guaranteed me a productive RB with MJD as a bonus. Marshall scored only half a point per game less than Megatron in our league last year and was considerably more consistent. One the other hand this is fantasy so who knows how things are going to play out in the end. I'm confident in my team, but it's the most unbalanced team I've had since my rookie year.
Now let me talk about some general thoughts:
1) Running backs are not nearly as valuable as WRs. I know there are fewer backs that can score you points on a consistent basis these days, which should make them a hotter commodity, but I'm going the other way and looking to WRs for consistency. As I said, I'm a risk averse fantasy manager and frankly RBs make me nervous. They get injured at higher rates, they're becoming harder to predict outside of the studs (and there's only one or two solid one this year [Rice and Peterson]), and the game is moving away from one RB having a prominent role. I'll make like Belichick and start recording other managers' draft boards. Wait! I mean I'll start abandoning RBs for stud receivers.
2) I'd be worried about Dez Bryant if I had him on my team. As I said in my reality football blog I still don't think Dez has figured out how to run effective routes and beat double coverage AND he's now injured his foot. Foot injuries are the new high ankle sprain. If you can trade Dez to someone who's still a believer in his breakout year then I'd do it.
3) Speaking of fantasy busts. SELL YOUR MIKE WALLACE STOCK NOW! I told you this would happen and though some will say "It's just one game" I say we've seen this story too many times to think that Wallace and his petulant attitude will rebound and have a top receiver year. You won't be able to predict his week-to-week production and the fewer starters you have like that the better off you'll be. If he has a monster game this week all the better to sucker someone into trading Reggie Wayne for him. Get ride of this guy posthaste!
4) Ambiguity at running back isn't good and if you own C.J. Spiller or Arian Foster I'd be concerned. Too early to bail, but warm up the trading block. Their health is an issue and they have two capable backups. I'd temper my expectations for a big year.
5) Brady will finish outside the top 5 this year. It's clear after watching the Jets game that Brady doesn't have the personnel right now to make dynamic plays down the field. Even when Gronk gets back, and good on you if you drafted him late, I think Brady has one of his worst statistical years in a long time. He's still an every-week starter, but it's going to be a bit of slow year.
6) If Colin Kaepernick stays healthy he'll be the number one fantasy QB this year. This guy is more dynamic than any other QB in the league and if he was a thick as Cam Newton I'd trade Megatron and Romo to get him. Kaep's not a small guy and he takes care not to take hits, but he's not built like Andrew Luck (have you seen how thin his legs are?!). If you drafted him in the later rounds then you might have gotten the steal of the draft.
7) The case for team defenses gets another nail in its coffin this year. The days of dominant defenses is over. I've said before that team defenses are stupid because they're impossible to predict from week to week and now I think they'll score even less than kickers. DOWN WITH D/ST!
Good luck this week folks!
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