I'm excited to talk about this position because I think W/Ts are the new running backs. Backs aren't as dependable as they used to be and it's becoming increasingly difficult to predict who will break out in a given year. W/Ts are more of a known quantity these days as the league moves from 50 yards and a cloud of dust to run and shoot. Before we get into my thoughts on who will break out in 2014 let's take a look at W/T SPR scores from the past two years.
2013 W/T SPR
2013 W/T SPR
| Rank | Name | Wk. AVG | Fant SPR |
| 1 | A. Brown | 18.53 | 87.61 |
| 2 | A. Green | 16.63 | 86.11 |
| 3 | J. Gordon | 18.08 | 80.00022 |
| 4 | B. Marshall | 15.90 | 50.02692 |
| 5 | K. Allen | 12.44 | 33.00554 |
| 6 | A. Jeffery | 16.64 | 22.81601 |
| 7 | D. Thomas | 16.71 | 20.82644 |
| 8 | T. Smith | 11.27 | 17.47623 |
| 9 | D. Bryant | 15.37 | 16.91423 |
| 10 | J. Graham | 16.73 | 14.39128 |
| 11 | L. Fiztgerald | 12.59 | 9.50050 |
| 12 | M. Floyd | 10.55 | 2.49420 |
| 13 | W. Welker | 12.06 | -0.25948 |
| 14 | A. Johnson | 15.62 | -11.02192 |
| 15 | E. Decker | 15.58 | -19.06903 |
| 16 | V. Cruz | 11.09 | -21.42010 |
| 17 | M. Colston | 10.41 | -21.90615 |
| 18 | C. Johnson | 18.55 | -23.88539 |
| 19 | J. Jones | 6.08 | -130.73260 |
| 20 | R. Cobb | 5.35 | -137.07542 |
Check out your favorite players and how they did this past year. Keenan Allen was a better bet than Eric Decker despite Decker's multiple 3 touchdown games this season. Brandon Marshall outplayed his younger counterpart Alshon Jeffery despite having fewer yards. Antonio Brown was way better than Megatron and ended up being the number one receiver in fantasy this year. Julio Jones and Randall Cobb were derailed by injuries and likely would have been at the top of this list had they stayed healthy. It might have been tough to decide between Thomas, Decker, and Welker this year, but SPR tells you who was the best and it wasn't that close.
Total W/T SPR
| Rank | Name | Point AVG | LT SPR |
| 1 | J. Gordon* | 18.08 | 80.00 |
| 2 | B. Marshall | 17.19 | 69.54 |
| 3 | A. Green | 16.71 | 62.51 |
| 4 | A. Brown | 14.09 | 57.92 |
| 5 | A. Johnson | 15.43 | 35.51 |
| 6 | K. Allen* | 12.44 | 33.01 |
| 7 | C. Johnson | 18.80 | 31.86 |
| 8 | W. Welker | 13.71 | 26.24 |
| 9 | D. Thomas | 15.85 | 25.78 |
| 10 | D. Bryant | 16.22 | 24.88 |
| 11 | A. Jeffery* | 16.64 | 22.82 |
| 12 | E. Decker | 14.83 | 14.06 |
| 13 | J. Graham | 14.12 | 8.95 |
| 14 | R. White | 14.56 | 2.78 |
| 15 | M. Floyd* | 10.55 | 2.49 |
| 16 | V. Cruz | 12.31 | -8.81 |
| 17 | M. Colston | 11.47 | -12.43 |
| 18 | J. Jones | 10.28 | -22.26 |
| 19 | R. Cobb | 12.55 | -23.63 |
Looking at the overall list (* given to players with only one years worth of SPR) Brandon Marshall and A.J. Green are the best fantasy W/Ts out there. They simply produce every week from start to finish of the fantasy season. Megatron puts up points, but is no where near as consistent. Jimmy Graham, the only tight end worth keeping track of, isn't as great as you might have tough before reading this post and shouldn't be depended on in the post season. Julius Thomas didn't make this list because I think as soon as Manning retires he won't be fantasy relevant, and this if he can stay healthy. Other notable omissions include D. Jackson, J. Nelson, P. Garcon, V. Jackson, A. Boldin, and L. Fitzgerald. I see these players as #3 receivers at best namely because they aren't consistent from year to year.
Okay, here are my thoughts on W/Ts for 2014.
1) Brandon Marshall and A.J. Green are your best bets in 2014. These guys consistently put up points and won't let you down when it matters most. What makes these guys so good is that it doesn't matter who is throwing the ball they score points. These guys are cast from the same mold as Andre Johnson in his fantasy prime.
2) Megatron is the most overrated fantasy receiver and I'm staying away from him in 2014. This could end up backfiring on me because the Lions could end up hiring a coach that stabilizes the franchise and gets the most out of the immense talent on this roster. I reserve the right to change my mind completely on this thought, but even if the Lions hire a good coach I'm not a huge fan of taking players who are playing under a new coach. Megatron puts up points, but he's not come through late in the season for your fantasy team.
3) Cobb and Jones will probably bounce back and have big years in 2014. I'd rather have Cobb than Jones because Cobb is on a better team and has less of an injury history. Both players were on their way to monster seasons and if Jones can overcome his injury history he'll probably have higher point totals for the fantasy playoffs. If I were picking at the end of a round (the last pick in round two and the first pick in round three) I'd be ecstatic if I got Green and Cobb as my receivers.
4) I'm cautiously high on Antonio Brown. I don't think Brown has as big a year 2014 as he did this past year, but I think he's a legit number one. The Steelers were not consistent this past year, yet Brown produced every week. That's what number one receivers do, put up points no matter what. I'm cautious about Brown because I don't know if defenses necessarily game planned to stop Brown. We know defenses game plan to stop Marshall, Green, Johnson, and Megatron and part of the reason they fail is because these guys are simply too big and fast to contain. Brown is not a big guy and I worry a bit about how he'll manage bump coverage and double teams. If LeVeon Bell hadn't emerged I'd be a lot more skeptical on Brown.
5) Draft Dez Bryant if you want, I'm staying away...forever. Bryant is certainly talented, but this organization is too unstable and Bryant is too volatile for me to be confident with him on my team. I'd be happy with him as my #3, but there's no way he falls that far in my league or most leagues. That's fine with me. Tremendously talented and improving, just not my type of player.
6) Give me Kenan Allen over Josh Gordon. I had Gordon this past year and he was tremendous, but Allen is in a better, more stable situation in San Diego and will likely be playing in good weather late in the season. The Browns are a mess of an organization and don't have a QB and though Gordon produced despite QB instability much of his production was the result of long pass plays a la DeSean or Vincent Jackson. I don't have either of these "big play" receivers on my list because if they don't catch a long pass then their stats are terrible. Philip Rivers threw Allen the ball a lot and the young receiver was clearly the guy. Allen is probably less of a matchup nightmare than the bigger/faster Gordon, but Allen won't have to learn a new offense this offseason. If Gordon gets traded to a better team (like the 49ers, Panthers, Colts, or even the Bills or Rams) all bets are off.
7) Roddy White will bounce back in 2014. Lots a people are going to pass on White forgetting that before he got injured this past year he was up there with Brandon Marshall. He's no longer a number one guy, but if you can get him as your number 2 and definitely as your number 3 you'll be doing great.
8) Wes Welker doesn't belong anywhere in your top 3. He's been a stud in years past, but he's approaching Austin Collie levels of concussions and that scares the crap out of me. The Broncos offensive express only has about one year left and there's only one player on that team I'd draft, D. Thomas.
9) Keep your eye on Michael Floyd. I'd be ecstatic if he was my number 4 receiver next year. Carson Palmer has stabilized the QB position and the offensive line will improve once injured rookie Jonathan Cooper returns. If the Cardinals get a consistent running game look out!
10) Don't close the door on Andre Johnson quite yet. He's definitely not in his prime, but he'll be rejuvenated if the Texans hire the right coach. Like Marshall and Green, Johnson is good for 1200 yards and 85 catches no matter who's throwing the ball. That's worth a draft pick and I'd do a backflip if I got Johnson as my #3.
Check back for my final 2014 player preview, the IDPs!
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