If you don't know what Fantasy SPR is then you're behind in the latest trend that's sweeping the fantasy world! Catch up!
I've given my thoughts on QBs and RBs for next season, but I wanted to incorporate my new invention into my postseason review and 2014 preview. Let's start with the QBs
2013 QB SPR
Peyton being the number one ranked QB shouldn't come as a surprise. He was great the entire season and played big in the fantasy playoffs. What surprised me was how much things dropped off with the other QBs this year. Remember, any SPR above 80 is elite. None of the other fantasy QBs were elite this year besides Peyton Manning. Drew Brees and Andrew Luck were solid, but their SPRs of 56 and 55 tell us that in the playoff weeks they had a game that few below the position point threshold you would have needed for a win. In other words, if you made the playoffs and had Brees or Luck as your QB other players on your roster would have had to make for the points they failed to get. An SPR between 30-70 isn't the end of the word, but it does tell you that stud QBs may not be as money when it matters the most.
As for the other QBs of SPRs less than 20 you would almost certainly could not have counted on them to win your playoff games. This score tells you that these guys likely had multiple late season games where they failed to put up the necessary points to carry your team to victory. The really interesting thing here is to look at the weekly average column compared to the SPR. Take Tom Brady and Andrew Luck. They finished the year with roughly the same number of points and played with a limited receiving corps. Luck was a significantly better bet according to SPR because he didn't let you down in the playoffs like Brady did. Why is Aaron Rodger's SPR so low? His missed half the season including all fantasy playoff games. Now let's look at the aggregate SPR from this year and last year:
Total QB SPR
| Rank | Name | Wk. AVG | Fant SPR |
| 1 | P. Manning | 40.38 | 88.81 |
| 2 | D. Brees | 34.57 | 56.45 |
| 3 | A. Luck | 27.95 | 55.81 |
| 4 | T. Romo | 28.58 | 47.42 |
| 5 | M. Ryan | 25.83 | 18.06 |
| 6 | R. Wilson | 25.91 | 16.49 |
| 7 | M. Stafford | 29.47 | 14.87 |
| 8 | C. Newton | 27.04 | 11.26 |
| 9 | T. Brady | 27.44 | -2.76 |
| 10 | C. Kaepernick | 22.44 | -16.19 |
| 11 | A. Rodgers | 16.63 | -138.24 |
Peyton being the number one ranked QB shouldn't come as a surprise. He was great the entire season and played big in the fantasy playoffs. What surprised me was how much things dropped off with the other QBs this year. Remember, any SPR above 80 is elite. None of the other fantasy QBs were elite this year besides Peyton Manning. Drew Brees and Andrew Luck were solid, but their SPRs of 56 and 55 tell us that in the playoff weeks they had a game that few below the position point threshold you would have needed for a win. In other words, if you made the playoffs and had Brees or Luck as your QB other players on your roster would have had to make for the points they failed to get. An SPR between 30-70 isn't the end of the word, but it does tell you that stud QBs may not be as money when it matters the most.
As for the other QBs of SPRs less than 20 you would almost certainly could not have counted on them to win your playoff games. This score tells you that these guys likely had multiple late season games where they failed to put up the necessary points to carry your team to victory. The really interesting thing here is to look at the weekly average column compared to the SPR. Take Tom Brady and Andrew Luck. They finished the year with roughly the same number of points and played with a limited receiving corps. Luck was a significantly better bet according to SPR because he didn't let you down in the playoffs like Brady did. Why is Aaron Rodger's SPR so low? His missed half the season including all fantasy playoff games. Now let's look at the aggregate SPR from this year and last year:
Total QB SPR
| Rank | Name | Point AVG | SPR |
| 1 | P. Manning | 36.43 | 82.63 |
| 2 | D. Brees | 35.38 | 61.81 |
| 3 | T. Romo | 30.09 | 54.89 |
| 4 | M. Ryan | 29.49 | 54.81 |
| 5 | C. Newton | 28.42 | 50.91 |
| 6 | T. Brady | 31.39 | 45.52 |
| 7 | A. Luck | 28.23 | 40.01 |
| 8 | M. Stafford | 29.60 | 21.85 |
| 9 | R. Wilson | 25.78 | 10.74 |
| 10 | A. Rodgers | 25.20 | -57.43 |
This list is short for a reason. There are some fantasy QBs that I've left off this list because I think either they're not worth drafting (Dalton, RGIII, E. Manning, Smith), they're not particularly consistent from year to year (Big Ben, Joe Flacco, Rivers, Palmer, Cutler), or they're too early in their careers to make year to year comparisons (Kaepernick, Manuel, Tannehill). I think Kaep and maybe Tannehill will be add to this list next year, but I don't anticipate ever having more than 12 QBs on this list at a time. I'll probably stop keeping track of Peyton and Brady in the next two years because they'll simply be too old for me to be confident in drafting them.
Right now Peyton is both the highest scoring and most consistent QB in fantasy football. No surprise there given the way he's played since coming to Denver. My earlier thoughts on Drew Brees begin the number one fantasy QB were partially correct in that he's the second best according to SPR. The difference between Brees and the rest of the field isn't as wide as I thought however, though there's a significant drop in average points per week between him and Romo. Brees is still my number one guy manly because I'm not sure Manning continues to have the run that he's had much longer. He may have another #1 season, but I could definitely see him falling below expectations given his age. Too much risk for me. I think it's interesting that Romo, Ryan, and Newton are roughly the same QB according to my rankings. For a long time I didn't want to believe the Newton was a viable fantasy QB, but the numbers don't lie. Romo's reputation for being a chocker works in your favor as he's clearly a top five fantasy QB.
Aaron Rodgers might be the biggest surprise from my rankings. He's had some epic seasons, but people forget that he's had a number of injuries over the years that have derailed many a fantasy team. And despite his 33 points per week in 2012 his SPR was only 23. Rodgers is a brilliant QB, but he's also a significant risk. There's no way I'd take him in the first round, before Brees, Romo, or Netwon, and I'd be perfectly happy with Luck or Ryan as a consolation prize. Sounds crazy, but the numbers tell a compelling story. Now for the running backs.
2013 RB SPR
A few surprises and a few obvious results to point out. Obviously Shady McCoy and Jamaal Charles were fantasy studs this year. Charles' year was epic while McCoy's was epic light. Mr. Glass a.k.a DeMarco Murray was surprising dependable in the playoffs and Eddie Lacy had one of the best rookie RB seasons we've seen in a long time. The thing that really jumps out at me is the difference between Matt Forte and Beast Mode (M. Lynch) and the rest of the 16+ points/week club. Total and average points don't tell the whole story because had you had Forte or Lynch on your playoff team they might have cost you a win while Murray or Lacy would have been better bets. The last thing that jumps out at me is how poorly many so called studs performed this year. Rice, Bush, Richardson, Peterson, Martin, and Foster all had terrible years, mostly due to injury. This should worry you as a fantasy player because the margin of error in your running back selection is very thin.
Total RB SPR
Eddie Lacy only has one year's worth of SPR so his number is not directly comparable to the other backs on my list. Like the QBs I've left some players off this list for the same reasons I explained above. Knowshon Moreno is not on this list because he's never managed to stay healthy until this year and I think you're an idiot if you take him as your number one back. Arian Foster is the Aaron Rodgers of this list and like Rodgers, Foster had an injury year that preceded a year where he failed to score points in the playoffs. I would also caution people against Adrian Peterson. His 2012 was epic, but despite his 20 point average last year his SPR was 0.78. Peterson was money in the regular season and then laid an egg when it mattered to your team the most. Running backs are probably the hardest position to predict, but that doesn't mean SPR isn't useful for this position. Matt Forte is probably your safest bet as a running back and considering how high people are going to be on Charles, Lacy, Moreno, and McCoy, you'll probably the most value out of the Chicago back.
In my previous running back post I said AD and Arian Foster would likely regain their fantasy prowess in 2014. After seeing the SPRs for the last two years I no longer think either back is dependable and/or worth drafting high. Another crazy conclusion, but once again, the numbers don't lie.
Next up, the receivers!
Right now Peyton is both the highest scoring and most consistent QB in fantasy football. No surprise there given the way he's played since coming to Denver. My earlier thoughts on Drew Brees begin the number one fantasy QB were partially correct in that he's the second best according to SPR. The difference between Brees and the rest of the field isn't as wide as I thought however, though there's a significant drop in average points per week between him and Romo. Brees is still my number one guy manly because I'm not sure Manning continues to have the run that he's had much longer. He may have another #1 season, but I could definitely see him falling below expectations given his age. Too much risk for me. I think it's interesting that Romo, Ryan, and Newton are roughly the same QB according to my rankings. For a long time I didn't want to believe the Newton was a viable fantasy QB, but the numbers don't lie. Romo's reputation for being a chocker works in your favor as he's clearly a top five fantasy QB.
Aaron Rodgers might be the biggest surprise from my rankings. He's had some epic seasons, but people forget that he's had a number of injuries over the years that have derailed many a fantasy team. And despite his 33 points per week in 2012 his SPR was only 23. Rodgers is a brilliant QB, but he's also a significant risk. There's no way I'd take him in the first round, before Brees, Romo, or Netwon, and I'd be perfectly happy with Luck or Ryan as a consolation prize. Sounds crazy, but the numbers tell a compelling story. Now for the running backs.
2013 RB SPR
| Rank | Name | Wk. AVG | Fant SPR |
| 1 | L. McCoy | 19.45 | 87.56 |
| 2 | J. Charles | 23.40 | 87.08 |
| 3 | E. Lacy | 14.26 | 85.13 |
| 4 | D. Murray | 14.96 | 84.11 |
| 5 | M. Forte | 18.04 | 34.81 |
| 6 | L. Bell | 11.89 | 32.97 |
| 7 | F. Gore | 12.10 | 23.11 |
| 8 | G. Bernard | 12.47 | 15.56 |
| 9 | M. Lynch | 16.58 | 12.17 |
| 10 | T. Richardson | 7.23 | -3.46 |
| 11 | A. Peterson | 15.15 | -4.93 |
| 12 | R. Bush | 13.28 | -7.90 |
| 13 | R. Rice | 9.24 | -15.90 |
| 14 | D. Sproles | 10.96 | -20.84 |
| 15 | D. Martin | 4.50 | -97.78 |
| 16 | A. Foster | 6.50 | -108.07 |
A few surprises and a few obvious results to point out. Obviously Shady McCoy and Jamaal Charles were fantasy studs this year. Charles' year was epic while McCoy's was epic light. Mr. Glass a.k.a DeMarco Murray was surprising dependable in the playoffs and Eddie Lacy had one of the best rookie RB seasons we've seen in a long time. The thing that really jumps out at me is the difference between Matt Forte and Beast Mode (M. Lynch) and the rest of the 16+ points/week club. Total and average points don't tell the whole story because had you had Forte or Lynch on your playoff team they might have cost you a win while Murray or Lacy would have been better bets. The last thing that jumps out at me is how poorly many so called studs performed this year. Rice, Bush, Richardson, Peterson, Martin, and Foster all had terrible years, mostly due to injury. This should worry you as a fantasy player because the margin of error in your running back selection is very thin.
Total RB SPR
| Rank | Name | Point AVG | LT SPR |
| 1 | E. Lacy* | 14.26 | 85.13 |
| 2 | M. Forte | 15.15 | 60.74 |
| 3 | M. Lynch | 16.68 | 50.51 |
| 4 | L. McCoy | 15.10 | 43.98 |
| 5 | J. Charles | 19.26 | 37.44 |
| 6 | D. Sproles | 12.17 | 31.79 |
| 7 | R. Rice | 13.16 | 16.21 |
| 8 | T. Richardson | 11.25 | 14.47 |
| 9 | R. Bush | 12.82 | 10.20 |
| 10 | A. Peterson | 17.87 | -2.08 |
| 11 | A. Foster | 12.09 | -53.55 |
Eddie Lacy only has one year's worth of SPR so his number is not directly comparable to the other backs on my list. Like the QBs I've left some players off this list for the same reasons I explained above. Knowshon Moreno is not on this list because he's never managed to stay healthy until this year and I think you're an idiot if you take him as your number one back. Arian Foster is the Aaron Rodgers of this list and like Rodgers, Foster had an injury year that preceded a year where he failed to score points in the playoffs. I would also caution people against Adrian Peterson. His 2012 was epic, but despite his 20 point average last year his SPR was 0.78. Peterson was money in the regular season and then laid an egg when it mattered to your team the most. Running backs are probably the hardest position to predict, but that doesn't mean SPR isn't useful for this position. Matt Forte is probably your safest bet as a running back and considering how high people are going to be on Charles, Lacy, Moreno, and McCoy, you'll probably the most value out of the Chicago back.
In my previous running back post I said AD and Arian Foster would likely regain their fantasy prowess in 2014. After seeing the SPRs for the last two years I no longer think either back is dependable and/or worth drafting high. Another crazy conclusion, but once again, the numbers don't lie.
Next up, the receivers!
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