2014 Receivers and Tight Ends

I'm excited to talk about this position because I think W/Ts are the new running backs. Backs aren't as dependable as they used to be and it's becoming increasingly difficult to predict who will break out in a given year. W/Ts are more of a known quantity these days as the league moves from 50 yards and a cloud of dust to run and shoot. Before we get into my thoughts on who will break out in 2014 let's take a look at W/T SPR scores from the past two years.

2013 W/T SPR

Rank	Name	Wk. AVG	Fant SPR
1	A. Brown	18.53	87.61
2	A. Green	16.63	86.11
3	J. Gordon	18.08	80.00022
4	B. Marshall	15.90	50.02692
5	K. Allen	12.44	33.00554
6	A. Jeffery	16.64	22.81601
7	D. Thomas	16.71	20.82644
8	T. Smith	11.27	17.47623
9	D. Bryant	15.37	16.91423
10	J. Graham	16.73	14.39128
11	L. Fiztgerald	12.59	9.50050
12	M. Floyd	10.55	2.49420
13	W. Welker	12.06	-0.25948
14	A. Johnson	15.62	-11.02192
15	E. Decker	15.58	-19.06903
16	V. Cruz	11.09	-21.42010
17	M. Colston	10.41	-21.90615
18	C. Johnson	18.55	-23.88539
19	J. Jones	6.08	-130.73260
20	R. Cobb	5.35	-137.07542

Check out your favorite players and how they did this past year. Keenan Allen was a better bet than Eric Decker despite Decker's multiple 3 touchdown games this season. Brandon Marshall outplayed his younger counterpart Alshon Jeffery despite having fewer yards. Antonio Brown was way better than Megatron and ended up being the number one receiver in fantasy this year. Julio Jones and Randall Cobb were derailed by injuries and likely would have been at the top of this list had they stayed healthy. It might have been tough to decide between Thomas, Decker, and Welker this year, but SPR tells you who was the best and it wasn't that close.

Total W/T SPR

Rank	Name	Point AVG	LT SPR
1	J. Gordon*	18.08	80.00
2	B. Marshall	17.19	69.54
3	A. Green	16.71	62.51
4	A. Brown	14.09	57.92
5	A. Johnson	15.43	35.51
6	K. Allen*	12.44	33.01
7	C. Johnson	18.80	31.86
8	W. Welker	13.71	26.24
9	D. Thomas	15.85	25.78
10	D. Bryant	16.22	24.88
11	A. Jeffery*	16.64	22.82
12	E. Decker	14.83	14.06
13	J. Graham	14.12	8.95
14	R. White	14.56	2.78
15	M. Floyd*	10.55	2.49
16	V. Cruz	12.31	-8.81
17	M. Colston	11.47	-12.43
18	J. Jones	10.28	-22.26
19	R. Cobb	12.55	-23.63

Looking at the overall list (* given to players with only one years worth of SPR) Brandon Marshall and A.J. Green are the best fantasy W/Ts out there. They simply produce every week from start to finish of the fantasy season. Megatron puts up points, but is no where near as consistent. Jimmy Graham, the only tight end worth keeping track of, isn't as great as you might have tough before reading this post and shouldn't be depended on in the post season. Julius Thomas didn't make this list because I think as soon as Manning retires he won't be fantasy relevant, and this if he can stay healthy. Other notable omissions include D. Jackson, J. Nelson, P. Garcon, V. Jackson, A. Boldin, and L. Fitzgerald. I see these players as #3 receivers at best namely because they aren't consistent from year to year. 

Okay, here are my thoughts on W/Ts for 2014.

1) Brandon Marshall and A.J. Green are your best bets in 2014. These guys consistently put up points and won't let you down when it matters most. What makes these guys so good is that it doesn't matter who is throwing the ball they score points. These guys are cast from the same mold as Andre Johnson in his fantasy prime.

2) Megatron is the most overrated fantasy receiver and I'm staying away from him in 2014. This could end up backfiring on me because the Lions could end up hiring a coach that stabilizes the franchise and gets the most out of the immense talent on this roster. I reserve the right to change my mind completely on this thought, but even if the Lions hire a good coach I'm not a huge fan of taking players who are playing under a new coach. Megatron puts up points, but he's not come through late in the season for your fantasy team.

3) Cobb and Jones will probably bounce back and have big years in 2014. I'd rather have Cobb than Jones because Cobb is on a better team and has less of an injury history. Both players were on their way to monster seasons and if Jones can overcome his injury history he'll probably have higher point totals for the fantasy playoffs. If I were picking at the end of a round (the last pick in round two and the first pick in round three) I'd be ecstatic if I got Green and Cobb as my receivers.

4) I'm cautiously high on Antonio Brown. I don't think Brown has as big a year 2014 as he did this past year, but I think he's a legit number one. The Steelers were not consistent this past year, yet Brown produced every week. That's what number one receivers do, put up points no matter what. I'm cautious about Brown because I don't know if defenses necessarily game planned to stop Brown. We know defenses game plan to stop Marshall, Green, Johnson, and Megatron and part of the reason they fail is because these guys are simply too big and fast to contain. Brown is not a big guy and I worry a bit about how he'll manage bump coverage and double teams. If LeVeon Bell hadn't emerged I'd be a lot more skeptical on Brown.

5) Draft Dez Bryant if you want, I'm staying away...forever. Bryant is certainly talented, but this organization is too unstable and Bryant is too volatile for me to be confident with him on my team. I'd be happy with him as my #3, but there's no way he falls that far in my league or most leagues. That's fine with me. Tremendously talented and improving, just not my type of player.

6) Give me Kenan Allen over Josh Gordon. I had Gordon this past year and he was tremendous, but Allen is in a better, more stable situation in San Diego and will likely be playing in good weather late in the season. The Browns are a mess of an organization and don't have a QB and though Gordon produced despite QB instability much of his production was the result of long pass plays a la DeSean or Vincent Jackson. I don't have either of these "big play" receivers on my list because if they don't catch a long pass then their stats are terrible. Philip Rivers threw Allen the ball a lot and the young receiver was clearly the guy. Allen is probably less of a matchup nightmare than the bigger/faster Gordon, but Allen won't have to learn a new offense this offseason. If Gordon gets traded to a better team (like the 49ers, Panthers, Colts, or even the Bills or Rams) all bets are off. 

7) Roddy White will bounce back in 2014. Lots a people are going to pass on White forgetting that before he got injured this past year he was up there with Brandon Marshall. He's no longer a number one guy, but if you can get him as your number 2 and definitely as your number 3 you'll be doing great.

8) Wes Welker doesn't belong anywhere in your top 3. He's been a stud in years past, but he's approaching Austin Collie levels of concussions and that scares the crap out of me. The Broncos offensive express only has about one year left and there's only one player on that team I'd draft, D. Thomas.

9) Keep your eye on Michael Floyd. I'd be ecstatic if he was my number 4 receiver next year. Carson Palmer has stabilized the QB position and the offensive line will improve once injured rookie Jonathan Cooper returns. If the Cardinals get a consistent running game look out!

10) Don't close the door on Andre Johnson quite yet. He's definitely not in his prime, but he'll be rejuvenated if the Texans hire the right coach. Like Marshall and Green, Johnson is good for 1200 yards and 85 catches no matter who's throwing the ball. That's worth a draft pick and I'd do a backflip if I got Johnson as my #3.

Check back for my final 2014 player preview, the IDPs!

QB and RB Fantasy SPR

If you don't know what Fantasy SPR is then you're behind in the latest trend that's sweeping the fantasy world! Catch up!

I've given my thoughts on QBs and RBs for next season, but I wanted to incorporate my new invention into my postseason review and 2014 preview. Let's start with the QBs

2013 QB SPR

Rank	Name	Wk. AVG	Fant SPR
1	P. Manning	40.38	88.81
2	D. Brees	34.57	56.45
3	A. Luck	27.95	55.81
4	T. Romo	28.58	47.42
5	M. Ryan	25.83	18.06
6	R. Wilson	25.91	16.49
7	M. Stafford	29.47	14.87
8	C. Newton	27.04	11.26
9	T. Brady	27.44	-2.76
10	C. Kaepernick	22.44	-16.19
11	A. Rodgers	16.63	-138.24

Peyton being the number one ranked QB shouldn't come as a surprise. He was great the entire season and played big in the fantasy playoffs. What surprised me was how much things dropped off with the other QBs this year. Remember, any SPR above 80 is elite. None of the other fantasy QBs were elite this year besides Peyton Manning. Drew Brees and Andrew Luck were solid, but their SPRs of 56 and 55 tell us that in the playoff weeks they had a game that few below the position point threshold you would have needed for a win. In other words, if you made the playoffs and had Brees or Luck as your QB other players on your roster would have had to make for the points they failed to get. An SPR between 30-70 isn't the end of the word, but it does tell you that stud QBs may not be as money when it matters the most.

As for the other QBs of SPRs less than 20 you would almost certainly could not have counted on them to win your playoff games. This score tells you that these guys likely had multiple late season games where they failed to put up the necessary points to carry your team to victory. The really interesting thing here is to look at the weekly average column compared to the SPR. Take Tom Brady and Andrew Luck. They finished the year with roughly the same number of points and played with a limited receiving corps. Luck was a significantly better bet according to SPR because he didn't let you down in the playoffs like Brady did. Why is Aaron Rodger's SPR so low? His missed half the season including all fantasy playoff games. Now let's look at the aggregate SPR from this year and last year:


Total QB SPR

Rank	Name	Point AVG	SPR
1	P. Manning	36.43	82.63
2	D. Brees	35.38	61.81
3	T. Romo	30.09	54.89
4	M. Ryan	29.49	54.81
5	C. Newton	28.42	50.91
6	T. Brady	31.39	45.52
7	A. Luck	28.23	40.01
8	M. Stafford	29.60	21.85
9	R. Wilson	25.78	10.74
10	A. Rodgers	25.20	-57.43

This list is short for a reason. There are some fantasy QBs that I've left off this list because I think either they're not worth drafting (Dalton, RGIII, E. Manning, Smith), they're not particularly consistent from year to year (Big Ben, Joe Flacco, Rivers, Palmer, Cutler), or they're too early in their careers to make year to year comparisons (Kaepernick, Manuel, Tannehill). I think Kaep and maybe Tannehill will be add to this list next year, but I don't anticipate ever having more than 12 QBs on this list at a time. I'll probably stop keeping track of Peyton and Brady in the next two years because they'll simply be too old for me to be confident in drafting them.

Right now Peyton is both the highest scoring and most consistent QB in fantasy football. No surprise there given the way he's played since coming to Denver. My earlier thoughts on Drew Brees begin the number one fantasy QB were partially correct in that he's the second best according to SPR. The difference between Brees and the rest of the field isn't as wide as I thought however, though there's a significant drop in average points per week between him and Romo. Brees is still my number one guy manly because I'm not sure Manning continues to have the run that he's had much longer. He may have another #1 season, but I could definitely see him falling below expectations given his age. Too much risk for me. I think it's interesting that Romo, Ryan, and Newton are roughly the same QB according to my rankings. For a long time I didn't want to believe the Newton was a viable fantasy QB, but the numbers don't lie. Romo's reputation for being a chocker works in your favor as he's clearly a top five fantasy QB.

Aaron Rodgers might be the biggest surprise from my rankings. He's had some epic seasons, but people forget that he's had a number of injuries over the years that have derailed many a fantasy team. And despite his 33 points per week in 2012 his SPR was only 23. Rodgers is a brilliant QB, but he's also a significant risk. There's no way I'd take him in the first round, before Brees, Romo, or Netwon, and I'd be perfectly happy with Luck or Ryan as a consolation prize. Sounds crazy, but the numbers tell a compelling story. Now for the running backs.


2013 RB SPR

Rank	Name	Wk. AVG	Fant SPR
1	L. McCoy	19.45	87.56
2	J. Charles	23.40	87.08
3	E. Lacy	14.26	85.13
4	D. Murray	14.96	84.11
5	M. Forte	18.04	34.81
6	L. Bell	11.89	32.97
7	F. Gore	12.10	23.11
8	G. Bernard	12.47	15.56
9	M. Lynch	16.58	12.17
10	T. Richardson	7.23	-3.46
11	A. Peterson	15.15	-4.93
12	R. Bush	13.28	-7.90
13	R. Rice	9.24	-15.90
14	D. Sproles	10.96	-20.84
15	D. Martin	4.50	-97.78
16	A. Foster	6.50	-108.07

A few surprises and a few obvious results to point out. Obviously Shady McCoy and Jamaal Charles were fantasy studs this year. Charles' year was epic while McCoy's was epic light. Mr. Glass a.k.a DeMarco Murray was surprising dependable in the playoffs and Eddie Lacy had one of the best rookie RB seasons we've seen in a long time. The thing that really jumps out at me is the difference between Matt Forte and Beast Mode (M. Lynch) and the rest of the 16+ points/week club. Total and average points don't tell the whole story because had you had Forte or Lynch on your playoff team they might have cost you a win while Murray or Lacy would have been better bets. The last thing that jumps out at me is how poorly many so called studs performed this year. Rice, Bush, Richardson, Peterson, Martin, and Foster all had terrible years, mostly due to injury. This should worry you as a fantasy player because the margin of error in your running back selection is very thin.

Total RB SPR

Rank	Name	Point AVG	LT SPR
1	E. Lacy*	14.26	85.13
2	M. Forte	15.15	60.74
3	M. Lynch	16.68	50.51
4	L. McCoy	15.10	43.98
5	J. Charles	19.26	37.44
6	D. Sproles	12.17	31.79
7	R. Rice	13.16	16.21
8	T. Richardson	11.25	14.47
9	R. Bush	12.82	10.20
10	A. Peterson	17.87	-2.08
11	A. Foster	12.09	-53.55

Eddie Lacy only has one year's worth of SPR so his number is not directly comparable to the other backs on my list. Like the QBs I've left some players off this list for the same reasons I explained above. Knowshon Moreno is not on this list because he's never managed to stay healthy until this year and I think you're an idiot if you take him as your number one back. Arian Foster is the Aaron Rodgers of this list and like Rodgers, Foster had an injury year that preceded a year where he failed to score points in the playoffs. I would also caution people against Adrian Peterson. His 2012 was epic, but despite his 20 point average last year his SPR was 0.78. Peterson was money in the regular season and then laid an egg when it mattered to your team the most. Running backs are probably the hardest position to predict, but that doesn't mean SPR isn't useful for this position. Matt Forte is probably your safest bet as a running back and considering how high people are going to be on Charles, Lacy, Moreno, and McCoy, you'll probably the most value out of the Chicago back.

In my previous running back post I said AD and Arian Foster would likely regain their fantasy prowess in 2014. After seeing the SPRs for the last two years I no longer think either back is dependable and/or worth drafting high. Another crazy conclusion, but once again, the numbers don't lie.

Next up, the receivers!

Fantasy Season Position Rating (Fant SPR)

I've done it! I've cracked it! I think I've finally come up with a way to rate fantasy player performances that reflect the most important fantasy attribute, consistency. Before I get into the nuts and bolts of this rating system let me review my preferred brand of fantasy football:

1) Partial points
2) Individual defensive players (IDPs)
3) 1/2 PPR (a full point for a catch is a bit much for my tastes)
4) Points for return yards (C. Patterson, Percy Harvin, Antionio Brown are all legit fantasy players)
5) TDs are worth 6 points for every player
6) Season ends Week 16 not Week 17 (if you disagree you obviously didn't have Jamaal Charles this year)

Okay, now that that's that (isn't the English language great?) let me explain Fant SPR.

The key to this rating are two statistical measures, average points per week and the Consistency Index (CI). Judging fantasy players based on total points can be very misleading. Looking at last year you would have thought David Wilson was better than Darren Sproles. If you still think that then maybe you should stop reading. If you're concerned about consistency a more functional point metric for players is how many points per week they average. That gives you a better idea on what to expect from a player and it puts seemingly large total point differentials into the proper perspective. The difference between a QB that finishes the year with 500 points vs. a QB with 450 is only 3 points per week. That's not a big difference especially if QB1 dropped 75 in week 8 and averaged 27 points in the other weeks.

The next rating used for Fant SPR is the Consistency Index or CI. This ones a bit complicated, but essentially it's the standard deviation of the average weekly points scored. The lower the the CI the more consistent the player is from week to week. Here's the twist. I give weight the CI based on how a player performs in the playoffs. If your league has a roster and points configuration like mine then a total team score north of 220 points is usually good enough to win a game in any given week, especially the championship game. Given this total value you can calculate position values that will get you to that total (28 points or higher for a QB, 10 points or higher for kickers, and 14 points or higher for every other position in my league). So if a player in weeks 14-16 scores at or higher than those thresholds (28 or 14, I don't bother with kickers) then I give their CI a boost (the number is lowered). Likewise if a player at any point during those final three weeks scores below a certain threshold (20 or 10) I drop their CI (the number is increased) because a poor performance in the playoffs at a position you depend could mean a playoff loss. Take A.J. Green vs. Megatron this year. Their point total and point averages were 248.5 to 278.2 and 16.6 to 18.55 respectively. Big difference huh? Who wouldn't want Megatron as their number one guy? Certainly not before they took Green right? Wrong! Green's playoff numbers (16.2, 13.8, 25.2) were way better than Megtron's (6.7, 14.8, 5.8), so much so that the later probably lost you a playoff game if you were counting on him for his average 15+ points. Based on my CI formula Green had a CI of 2.31 (2nd best in fantasy) and Megtron had a CI of 22.98 (awful!).

So, the final step in calculating Fant SPR is simple. Divide the weekly point average by the CI and multiply by 100. I like to think of Fant SPR as a percentage (or probability if you don't multiply by 100) of what you can expect from a player's average in a given week. Anything SPR over 80 is elite and any negative value is terrible. SPRs between 79 and 45 usually means a good player that may have failed to meet expectations in the playoffs. These are the guys you need to take a closer look at and see if in the playoffs they simply had slightly lower weekly points (i.e. 14, 10, 12.5) or if they completely crapped their pants in one game (i.e. 22, 5.3, 17.8).

If you choose to use Fant SPR then you'll have to decide the playoff threshold values for each position and how much of a bonus and how much of a penalty you're going to give players based on their week 14-16 performance. The value of this system is that it does a better job of telling you the players that are going to bring it home for your team and what players are fools gold. Based on my latest calculations the pool of elite fantasy talent is VERY small (this year at QB was particularly brutal). I'm talking 5 or less elite players at every offensive position.

I've already given you some insight on the players I like for next year so I won't change much of what I said based on this new system I've come up with (QBs are pretty much spot on, RBs need some tweaking). Stay tuned for my SPR rankings at each position and the players that are on my watch list for 2014.

If you like what you read don't be afraid to become a follower and comment. Cheers!

2014 Running Backs

This position is dying fast. Personally I think having two slots on a fantasy roster for running backs is silly because it's becoming so hard to predict, before the season begins, who will be consistent scores (remember it's all about consistent scoring). So allow me to suggest that your league replace an RB slot with a flex in order to reflect football and fantasy football realities. Let's talk about the players.

1) Don't get carried away with Jamaal Charles. He's having a huge year and will probably have another big year next year, so long as he stays healthy. And that's the hang up for me. Charles in not a big guy and the offense overwhelming flows through him this year. That means that defenses will focus more heavily on stopping Charles and it will probably work to a greater extent in 2014 because no one else on this offense is worth devoting too much time on. As a rule the top scorers at their respective positions rarely repeat their performance in the following year (remember AD's 2000 yard prediction coming into 2013?). The bottom line is Charles is a beast, but he's not a thick back and he'll have a huge target on his back in 2014. I'd certainly draft him in the first round, but I'd be more nervous of him playing all 16 games, particularly down the stretch, than Marshawn Lynch. Speaking of which...

2) I think 2014 is Lynch's last season of being a number 1 fantasy back. Adrian Peterson is the only other back in the league that physically punishes defenses like Beast Mode. Lynch gets the tough yards, the goal line carriers, and is the only show in Seattle. He's had a big year this year and will likely get a lot of work in the playoffs. If the Seahawks win it all next year I'm downgrading my expectations of Lynch even further. This guy has a lot of tread on the tires and given his punishing running style I don't imagine he'll be terribly motivated to do it all again at full speed coming off of a championship.

3) Adrian Peterson will be the number one fantasy running back next year. One guy that appears to ultra motivated is AD. The injuries are beginning to pile up so like all running backs I'd temper my enthusiasm, but don't doubt this young man's drive to be the best. If the Vikings stabilize the QB position I'd take Peterson before any other back. If the Vikings continue to be QB incompetent or change coaches they'll rely heavily on their best player. Either way I think AD will be running a lot in 2014. Injury is always a concern and will be even more so if the Vikings don't get help on offense, but Peterson has been ultra productive under less than ideal circumstances for most of his career.

4) Matt Forte will be the second best fantasy running back. I'll be targeting Forte next year for several reasons. 1) His coach knows how to use him efficiently. 2) He's been ultra productive and consistent over the course of his career. 3) The team is offensively balanced and stable. 4) He has a counterpart at the same position that takes a beating. The Bears might have the most productive offense in the league next year and Forte will be at the center of it. Folks will be falling all over themselves to get Charles or Lynch or even AD and will pass on the back that's got the best prospects for success.

5) Darren Sproles will bounce back, but not as high as we're accustomed. Sproles is a top 5 back in PPR (the only format that makes sense) when healthy. He's little, but thick and plays all over the field. This year he's shown signs of age and hasn't been his usual durable self. I think he'll be draft worthy next year, but I'm a little worried by how well he's been bottled up in the second half of the year. I think the Saints will have to do a bit of soul searching this offseason because they're falling behind the emerging NFC teams (Seattle, San Fran, and Carolina) in their ability to play consistently well home and away. I don't know if a small back fits into what this team will have to become to beat more physical teams.

6) Frank Gore is over the hill. Draft him if you want next year. I haven't in the last 3 drafts and I'm even more standoffish now. He's a great player, but he's got a lot of miles on those surgically repaired knees. I think he's got a great shot at gaining 1000+ yards running, I just see a consistent weekly performance in his fantasy future. I see 150 yards in one week followed by two or three 35 yard games. Don't forget that Marcus Lattimore will be healthy next year. We'll have to see how he responds in the preseason, but the 49ers aren't stupid, they drafted the USC star for a reason.

7) If the Texans get a good coach Arian Foster will be a fantasy stud again. The Texans need a coach they can believe in and one who will maximize the talent on a load roster. Foster is a monster, but if this organization doesn't hit a home run with the head coach the motivation for Foster to play hard will fade. He got his big contract so now the only thing left to do is win a ring. If the coach is a flop don't expect Foster to play hard and sacrifice his body for a rushing title.

8) Shady McCoy makes me nervous. Have you seen this guy make cuts?! It's unbelievable. It's also unbelievable that his ACL, MCL, and PCL don't snap while he's doing it. Chip Kelly knows what he's doing and if McCoy can stay healthy he's a monster. I'd rather have Matt Forte because his running style is more fluid and easier on his body than McCoy's style.

9) Don't sleep on Trent Richardson. I'll be the first to admit that I thought Jim Brown was crazy when he said Richardson wasn't special. Seems Mr. Brown (met the man, amazing person) was right, but I'm not quite ready to fully agree with the greatest running back of all time. Richardson may not be the stud I thought he was going to be coming out of college, but I still think he can be a very good player and a top 10 fantasy back. It's a big adjustment getting traded in the middle of the season, especially when you don't see it coming. Richardson is a grinder and he's in a good situation with the Colts. The team has a subpar offensive line and if they continue to make good personnel decisions the holes will begin to open up. Don't forget how productive this guy was on the Browns, a team with no passing game in the AFC North.

Okay, I think that's all I've got for now. Check back soon for my thoughts on receivers (wideouts and tight ends)!

My Bad

I've been woefully neglectful of posting in this blog. Those you that have stuck around despite my neglect I thank you. There are two reasons for my abandonment this season: 1) I simply don't have to time to post each week (got a day job that pays the bills) and 2) I think fantasy advice during the season is mostly for people that don't draft well and/or don't pay close enough attention to football in general. My philosophy is drafting is 90% of success in fantasy with the other 10% coming from taking advantage of league specific opportunities. As such, much of the fantasy advice in-season has to do with who to start or sit in a given week or who are up and coming sleepers worth picking up. I've had a couple of ideas on these topics throughout the year and that's where I've let you, the reader, down. To make up for that I'm going to begin by getting you ready for next year early.

By now you may be out of the hunt for a 'ship or you may be worrying about the playoffs. Either way, the majority of your roster concerns are over for 2013. It's never too early to begin preparations for next year and that begins with trimming your expectations into shape for 2014. A lot can change between now and August 2014, but the majority of what I'm going to say in these next several posts are player trends I feel strongly about. Let's start with the QBs.

Quarterbacks

In general this position continues to be the most valuable in fantasy. I think as the NFL continues to change, getting the right QB is going to become increasingly important in fantasy. You don't want to screw up drafting at this position any more than a real GM wants to whiff with his real life team. As my wife says, "Let's make a list!"

1) Stay away from both Mannings. Avoiding Eli is obvious. He's a much better real life, real playoff QB than a fantasy option. You should avoid Peyton from now on because he's not the same QB in cold weather and that's when you need your team to play at its best. Peyton will win you games in weeks 1-10, but you can't depend on his production in the fantasy playoffs. If you're not drafting for consistency throughout the season, especially in the postseason then you're not doing much right.

2) Drew Brees is the best QB in fantasy and it's not close. Rodgers would be the best if his line were better and you could depend on him to stay healthy, but you can't. Brees plays in a dome or in the south for 10 out of 16 fantasy relevant games and has the best offense coach in football. Cam Newton has been too inconsistent thus far and isn't in Bree's league when it comes to making plays with his arm. Brady is limited by his supporting cast. Even if Brees throws a ton of picks he's going to throw for a ton of yards and TDs. if you have a shot at Brees next year, take it!

3) RGIII is undraftable. I never like QBs that are injury prone and RGIII has surprised me by staying healthy this year, but things are becoming increasingly unstable in Washington. Instability at QB is a death sentence for a fantasy manager. On top of all that, RGIII is still learning to read defenses and make effective throws. Too many ifs for me. RGIII may return to 2012 form, but it's far more likely that he'll continue to struggle and/or get injured in 2014. No thanks.

4) Kaepernick could be the number one QB in 2014, but you shouldn't draft him as your number one QB. Kaep's got stability and an offense that's getting healthy. He's still very young and learning to play the game effectively, but unlike RGIII his got a much better line and supporting cast. People thought that the Niners QB would break out this year and hopefully have come back down to earth, but they may have only been wrong in their timing. Don't waste time or effort trying to make sure you get Kaepernick, but if he falls to you and you've got a good crop of starters I think he's worth the risk.

5) Philip Rivers is once again fantasy relevant. I like what's happening in San Diego under the new coaching staff. They've got a dynamic offense and a budding star in Keenan Allen (much more on him later). Rivers has always been able to play at a high level, but he's needed organizational stability to keep from being a dumpster fire. They got it in southern Cali so feel good about waiting to take a QB if Rivers is still on the board.

6) Wait and see with Matt Ryan. He's not had his star receivers all year, but unless this team fixes its offensive line problems I'd be nervous about Ryan as my starter. Let's see what the Falcons do this offseason because they're on the precipice of coaching instability. 

7) Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson will be legit fantasy starters in 2014 if they get help at receiver. Wilson's got Percy Harvin, but faces tougher divisional opponents. Luck needs another weapon, Reggie Wayne may never be the same, but the division competition is not as tough. I wouldn't bet my season on these guys being studs, but if I had an amazing supporting cast I'd feel good enough starting them. At the very least you know they'll play in every single game.

8) Pump your brakes on Cam Newton. Notice how when Cam plays better his stats aren't as eye-popping. Don't get me wrong, Cam is top ten fantasy QB, but I don't think he's worth taking in the first round, nor do I think this seven-game winning streak is going to translate into a monster 2014 season. The Panthers still don't have a legit offensive threat beyond Steve Smith who's really showing signs of age. The last time Cam flashed brilliance the NFL took notice and next year shut him down. It looks like Cam is figuring things out, but so far he's not been terribly consistent. Give me Brees, Brady, Rodgers first, then I'll think about Cam.

The rest of the QBs are about who you think they are. Stay tuned for the running backs!

My Team

So a week into the fantasy season I thought I'd give you a rundown of the squad I drafted and some general thoughts on fantasy. I should say that with fantasy I prefer to sit and wait a little longer than most on making big declarations about busts and breakouts. I'll have a lot more say come week 3-4.


So here's the team I drafted in a twelve team, PPR, IDP league picking last.

QB: Tony Romo (5)
RB1: Maurice Jones-Drew (1)
RB2: Rashard Mendenhall (11)
WR1: Megatron (2)
WR2: Randall Cobb (3)
W/T: Larry Fitzgerald (4)
W/R/T: Anquan Boldin (13)
BN: Vick Ballard (15)
BN: Knile Davis (19)
BN: Josh Gordon (16)
BN: Kenny Britt (14)
BN: Fred Jackson (22)

D: Navorro Bowman (6)
D: Bobby Wagner (7)
D: Jerod (please pass the) Mayo (8)
DB: Harrison Smith (12)
DB: Kam Chancellor (17)
LB: Wesley Woodyard (9)
LB: Lawrence Timmons (10)
BN: D.J. Williams (18)
BN: Matt Herzlich (20)
BN: Jon Bostic (21)

Overall this is a strong team (I beat last year's champion in the first week by 40), but it's probably my worst draft in several years. I should have taken Brandon Marshall instead of Megatron in the second round and should have taken Darren Sproles instead of Fitzgerald in the forth. I don't like having holes on my roster and I've got a glaring weakness at RB. MJD may not return to form and if he doesn't I'm dependent on an injury to a starter ahead of the backups on my roster for a consistent running back. Having Sproles would have essentially guaranteed me a productive RB with MJD as a bonus. Marshall scored only half a point per game less than Megatron in our league last year and was considerably more consistent. One the other hand this is fantasy so who knows how things are going to play out in the end. I'm confident in my team, but it's the most unbalanced team I've had since my rookie year.

Now let me talk about some general thoughts:

1) Running backs are not nearly as valuable as WRs. I know there are fewer backs that can score you points on a consistent basis these days, which should make them a hotter commodity, but I'm going the other way and looking to WRs for consistency. As I said, I'm a risk averse fantasy manager and frankly RBs make me nervous. They get injured at higher rates, they're becoming harder to predict outside of the studs (and there's only one or two solid one this year [Rice and Peterson]), and the game is moving away from one RB having a prominent role. I'll make like Belichick and start recording other managers' draft boards. Wait! I mean I'll start abandoning RBs for stud receivers.

2) I'd be worried about Dez Bryant if I had him on my team. As I said in my reality football blog I still don't think Dez has figured out how to run effective routes and beat double coverage AND he's now injured his foot. Foot injuries are the new high ankle sprain. If you can trade Dez to someone who's still a believer in his breakout year then I'd do it.

3) Speaking of fantasy busts. SELL YOUR MIKE WALLACE STOCK NOW! I told you this would happen and though some will say "It's just one game" I say we've seen this story too many times to think that Wallace and his petulant attitude will rebound and have a top receiver year. You won't be able to predict his week-to-week production and the fewer starters you have like that the better off you'll be. If he has a monster game this week all the better to sucker someone into trading Reggie Wayne for him. Get ride of this guy posthaste!

4) Ambiguity at running back isn't good and if you own C.J. Spiller or Arian Foster I'd be concerned. Too early to bail, but warm up the trading block. Their health is an issue and they have two capable backups. I'd temper my expectations for a big year.

5) Brady will finish outside the top 5 this year. It's clear after watching the Jets game that Brady doesn't have the personnel right now to make dynamic plays down the field. Even when Gronk gets back, and good on you if you drafted him late, I think Brady has one of his worst statistical years in a long time. He's still an every-week starter, but it's going to be a bit of slow year.

6) If Colin Kaepernick stays healthy he'll be the number one fantasy QB this year. This guy is more dynamic than any other QB in the league and if he was a thick as Cam Newton I'd trade Megatron and Romo to get him. Kaep's not a small guy and he takes care not to take hits, but he's not built like Andrew Luck (have you seen how thin his legs are?!). If you drafted him in the later rounds then you might have gotten the steal of the draft.

7) The case for team defenses gets another nail in its coffin this year. The days of dominant defenses is over. I've said before that team defenses are stupid because they're impossible to predict from week to week and now I think they'll score even less than kickers. DOWN WITH D/ST!

Good luck this week folks!

Rankings News and Notes 2!

More guys I'm not drafting
Michael Vick: The hate may have gone too far on Vick, but I've never been a fan of him as a starting QB because he frankly isn't a great fantasy QB (except for 2006). He's never passed for more than 21 TDs in a season, has missed an average of almost 4 games a year since being named the started in Philly, and has never passed for more than 3,300 yards in a given year. His primary asset, his legs, is the exact thing that puts him in situations that cause injury. Chip Kelly's offense will have a different starting QB come 2014 and in all likelihood will have multiple starting QBs during the season. Too much turmoil and growing pains on the horizon and Vick is about as durable as a wet paper bag full of candy in the hands of an eight year old. No thanks.

Joe Flacco: Better real life QB than fantasy QB. Someone is going to rationalize taking him as a sleeper because of the numbers he put up in the playoffs forgetting that the players Flacco threw the ball to most during that run are no longer active or on the team. Say it out loud, "A QB that averages 3500 yards, 20 TDs, and zero rushing yards throughout his career is going to be worth drafting after losing his two primary targets in the offseason". Yeah...

Mike Wallace: I simply don't get why people like drafting this guy. Wallace has never caught more than 72 passes in a season and never scored more than 10 TDs. His yards per reception have dropped every year since 2010 and he's just gone from Big Ben to Ryan Tannehill. Do I need to explain this any further? Maybe as my number 3 receiver, but by that time he'll be taken by someone who sees Wallace as a faster Reggie Wayne (they're not even close). Mike Wallace and DeSean Jackson are one in the same. Big play guys that get deep, but lack the skills and/or body type to consistently beat double coverage and be a threat to catch 8-10 balls every week. Receivers rarely get better when they go to a new team. All the guys that do, Moss, Marshall, Vincent Jackson, are big strong guys with a versatile receiving skill set. If Wallace ever makes a Pro Bowl while in Miami I'll be very surprised.

Chris Johnson: The only fast and thin RB I'd take this year is Jamaal Charles and at no point would either guy be my number one. Jake Locker can't beat a blitz so teams will put 8 in the box and dare him to try. CJ2K isn't fantasy irrelevant, but I'd rather have Reggie Bush so I'll do something Locker struggles with under pressure...pass.

Either Packers rookie RB: I may regret this, because Lacy clearly has talent, but he also comes off the field on third down. Franklin is not as skilled a runner and probably won't see enough regular season reps to be a viable start every week. Lacy could end up having a Marshawn Lynch type season where he runs for a ton, but doesn't catch many passes, but given how crowded the backfield is (don't forget about James Starks) and his history of being nicked up I'll pass...for now.

Any TE other than Graham, Witten, Gates, or Gonzales: Remember I don't play in a league that requires a TE. What about Gronk? What about him. Multiple surgeries this offseason coupled with injury concerns before he broke into the league, and a return timeline that shifts every day. There will likely be one or two break out TEs this season, but I'm not going to waste a draft pick on one when I can get a quality IDP instead. Speaking of which...

Underrated IDPs
Paul Posluszny: This guy is the biggest tackling machine you've never heard of. He was very productive in Buffalo and has been in Jacksonville (see why you've never heard of him). Injuries are a bit of a concern with PP, but he's never out for long and always delivers when he returns to action.

David Harris: One of the most consistent tacklers in football. He's not a top tier fantasy LB, but you'll never get rid of him once he's on your team because he gets you 8-14 points every single week. When people start taking flyers take this guy.

Wesley Woodyard: What a great name for a linebacker! I guarantee this guy leads the Broncos in tackles this year. He's super productive and during the Broncos' turnover at the LB position they chose to keep this guy. You'll get him late in the draft, but he'll finish near the top of the IDP list.

Daryl Smith: He used to play for the Jags and was displaced by Posluszny and by injuries. The Ravens picked him up and that alone is a big reason I'm high on Smith. He's never been a stud IDP, but he's been solid. Now he goes to a team with a great space-eating d-line and a lot to prove. If David Harris is gone in the later rounds Daryl Smith is who I'd target.

Overrated IDPs
Any DB except Eric Weddle: Why Weddle? Because he scores points like an LB. Everyone else is too inconsistent from year to year to take early. I'll draft a DB before picking up my 4th LB, and take the second with one of my last 4 picks. I almost never end the season with both DBs I start with. Don't waste your time trying to discern who's in what tier because it's a wash. Stay away from corners and counting on guys that have had big interception years and you'll be fine.

Luke Kuechly: I actually think he's going to be a stud again this year, but given how he finished last season people are going to take him way earlier than they need to. Bowman, Johnson (Chiefs), Wagner, and Mayo will be right their with Kuechly game to game, so there's no need to take Kuechly in round 3 or 4 and miss out on getting your starting QB or number two receiver when you can laugh at the guy who does and take one of the other four studs IDPs in the next round. Don't get me wrong, Kuechly's only slightly overrated, I'm not willing to blow up my draft plan because I've got visions of a 180 solo tackle season.